中小学校传染病流行风险评价指标体系构建  

Construction of risk assessment index system of epidemic infectious diseases in primary and middle schools

作　　者：孙力菁 翟娅妮 周月芳[1] 张喆[1] 陆殷昊[1] 罗春燕[1] SUN Lijing;ZHAI Yani;ZHOU Yuefang;ZHANG Zhe;LU Yinhao;LUO Chunyan(Institute of Child and Adolescent Health,Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200336,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市疾病预防控制中心儿童青少年健康所,200336

出　　处：《中国学校卫生》2022年第8期1257-1262,共6页Chinese Journal of School Health

基　　金：上海市公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(2020—2022年)优秀人才培养计划(GWV-10.2-YQ15)。

摘　　要：目的 建立中小学校传染病流行风险评价指标体系,做好学校传染病预警工作,将学校传染病防控的关口前移。方法 通过文献查阅,业内相关专家咨询以及结合实际工作经验等方法,形成指标条目池。采用德尔菲法进行两轮专家咨询(第1轮13名,第2轮20名),统计分析每轮咨询时专家意见的集中程度(平均分、满分比)和协调程度(变异系数、协调系数W),其中协调系数W采用多个样本的非参数Kendall’s W检验得到。根据专家反馈意见对指标进行必要的增、减、修,最终确定评价的指标体系,并采用层次分析法计算各指标权重。结果 两轮咨询的专家权威系数分别为0.89和0.88,表格回收率均为100%;各三级指标变异系数范围分别为0.07~0.31和0.06~0.19,协调系数W分别为0.25和0.47,说明专家意见的一致性和可信度均较好。最终建立由5个一级指标、23个二级指标、86个三级指标组成的中小学校传染病流行风险评价指标体系。采用层次分析法计算指标的级别内权重,学校卫生管理与保障制度、学校卫生人员设施、健康监测与认知水平、严重性和应对措施5个一级指标的变异系数分别为0.09,0.06,0.08,0.12和0.06,权重系数分别为20.42%,21.19%,19.87%,17.45%和21.08%。结论 研究构建了适用于中小学校的学校传染病流行风险评价指标体系,专家积极性、协调性和权威程度均较好,对于落实中小学校传染病预警工作具有实际指导意义。Objective To establish a risk assessment index system for epidemic infectious diseases in primary and secondary schools,for early warning and prevention of school infectious diseases accurately and timely.Methods Through literature review,the indicators pool was established by consulting relevant experts and referring to practical experience.Then two rounds of expert consultation using the Delphi method were conducted(13 experts of round 1,and 20 experts of round 2).The concentration of expert opinions(the average,the percentage of full marks)and the coordination of expert opinions(the coefficient of variation,the coordination coefficient W)were calculated and analyzed.The coordination coefficient W was obtained by nonparametric Kendall's W test of multiple samples.According to the experts'feedback,necessary addition,reduction and modification of the indicators were carried out to determine the evaluation index system,and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was used to calculate the weight of each indicator.Results The expert authority coefficients of the two rounds of consultation were 0.89 and 0.88,respectively,and the form recovery rate was 100%.The range of the variation coefficient of each three-level indicator was 0.07-0.31 and 0.06-0.19,and the coordination coefficient W was 0.25 and 0.47,respectively,indicating that the consistency and credibility of expert opinions were good.Finally,the risk assessment index system of infectious diseases in primary and secondary schools was established,which was composed of 5 first-level indexes,23 second-level indexes and 86 third-level indexes.The AHP was used to calculate the intra-level weight of the index.The variation coefficient of five first-level indicators of school health management and security system,school health personnel facilities,health monitoring and cognition level,severity and coping measures were 0.09,0.06,0.08,0.12 and 0.06,respectively,and the weight coefficients were 20.42%,21.19%,19.87%,17.45%and 21.08%,respectively.Conclusion The risk assessment

关 键 词：传染病控制 组织和管理 质量指标 卫生保健 中小学生卫生保健服务 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R183[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] G478[文化科学—教育学]