工业机器人如何影响制造业就业变动——基于上市公司微观数据的分析  

How Does Industrial Robots Affect Employment of the Manufacturing Industry?——An Analysis on Listed Manufacturing Companies

作　　者：宋旭光[1] 左马华青 SONG Xuguang;ZUO Mahuaqing(Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学统计学院,100875

出　　处：《经济学动态》2022年第7期70-89,共20页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“数字产业化与产业数字化规模测算与路径优化”(21AJL010)。

摘　　要：人工智能和机器人科技被认为是智能制造和产业转型升级的重要载体,其快速发展在改变人们生活方方面面的同时,也为经济发展带来了新的机遇和挑战,机器人科技等新技术的出现势必会对就业产生重大冲击。本文利用IFR工业机器人数据和中国制造业上市公司微观数据,从微观企业层面和宏观行业层面考察工业机器人应用对制造业就业变动的影响效应。研究结果表明:工业机器人应用对企业就业净增长的负向影响会通过“降低企业就业创造,提高企业就业破坏”来产生作用。工业机器人应用对企业就业变动影响的作用途径存在异质性,相对而言,对于生产人员占比高以及高中学历占比低的企业,工业机器人应用对劳动力就业总体变动以及结构变动的冲击更为明显。机制检验表明,工业机器人应用会影响企业的员工结构和绩效水平,进而影响企业就业总体变动以及结构变动。工业机器人应用对上游行业企业的就业影响主要表现为替代效应,对下游行业企业的就业变动具有一定的正面影响。本文研究能够提供关于工业机器人应用对于劳动力市场均衡影响的中国版本解读,具有重要的政策含义。Artificial intelligence and robotics technology are regarded as important carriers of intelligent manufacturing and industrial transformation and upgrading.Their rapid development not only changes all aspects of people’s lives,but also brings new opportunities and challenges to economic development.The emergence of new technologies such as robotics technology is bound to have a significant impact on employment.This paper uses the industrial robot data published by International Federation of Robotics(IFR)to match the micro data of China’s manufacturing listed companies and investigates the impact of industrial robots on manufacturing employment from the micro enterprise level and the macro industry level.The results show that the negative impact of industrial robot application on the net growth of enterprise employment will play a role by“reducing enterprise employment creation and increasing enterprise employment destruction”.The impact of industrial robots on enterprise employment change is heterogeneous.Relatively speaking,for enterprises with high proportions of production workers and low proportions of workers with high school education,the impact of industrial robots on the overall change of labor employment and structural change is more obvious.The mechanism test shows that the application of industrial robots will affect the employee structure and performance enterprises,and then affect the overall change of employment and structural change of enterprises.The impact of industrial robots on the employment of enterprises in the upstream industry is mainly represented by the substitution effect,but it has a certain positive impact on the employment changes of enterprises in the downstream industry.This study can provide a Chinese version of the impact of industrial robots on labor market equilibrium,which has important policy implications.

关 键 词：工业机器人 就业创造 就业破坏 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F426.67F249.2