基于信息扩散技术的遵义市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估  

Risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disasters in Zunyi based on information diffusion technology

作　　者：邹德全[1] 邹承立 田洪进 宋鑫民 安俊华 熊凯 ZOU De-quan;ZOU Cheng-li;TIAN Hong-jin;SONG Xin-min;AN Jun-hua;XIONG Kai(Zunyi Meteorological Bureau,Zunyi 563000,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省遵义市气象局,贵州遵义563000

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第4期2070-2077,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：为揭示遵义市暴雨洪涝灾害风险水平,利用2010—2019年发生在辖区内的24次区域性暴雨洪涝灾害样本,采用信息分配方法估计重大降水强度致灾源概率密度分布,采用正态信息扩散技术分别构造暴雨洪涝-受灾人口比例和暴雨洪涝-直接经济损失率两个脆弱性函数,分别得到遵义市年均受灾人口比例和直接经济损失率期望值风险水平。信息分配法得出的降水强度概率分布估计较传统直方图方法的概率分布估计更符合重大降水发生发展规律;信息扩散技术确定的受灾人口比例和直接经济损失率脆弱性曲线符合降水强度对受灾人口比例和直接经济损失率影响的客观规律;遵义市暴雨洪涝导致受灾人口和直接经济损失均较大,是遵义市主要气象灾害之一;最大日降水量50 mm、85 mm量级降水可以设置为遵义市暴雨洪涝灾害预警起始标准和最高标准。To reveal the risk level of rainstorm and flood disasters in Zunyi City, 24 regional rainstorm and flood disaster samples that occurred in the jurisdiction during the period 2010-2019 were used and the maximum daily precipitation intensity during the disaster-causing rainstorm was selected as the hazard factor. The information distribution method was adopted to estimate the probability density distribution of the maximum daily precipitation intensity while normal information diffusion technology was used to construct the two vulnerability functions. Then, the disaster-affected population proportion with the connotation of loss expectation value and risk level of direct economic loss rate were obtained respectively. On this basis, using the annual average number of rainstorm and flood disasters, the average annual disaster-affected population and the amount of direct economic risk loss in Zunyi City were obtained. The probability distribution of the maximum daily precipitation intensity obtained by the information allocation method is relatively flat with a high intermediate probability. The left ends increase while the right ends decrease gradually. The results show that this method can better reflect the objective natural change of precipitation, and the estimated probability distribution of precipitation is relatively reasonable;The vulnerability curve of the proportion of the disaster-affected population and the direct economic loss rate inferred by the information diffusion technology shows that the proportion of the disaster-affected population and the direct economic loss rate increase with the increase of precipitation intensity;There is a non-linear characteristic consistent with the disaster-affected population and the direct economic loss vary with the intensity of rainstorms, which is interpretable and reasonable;the expected risk of the disaster-affected population in the year of heavy rains and floods in Zunyi City is 45 000 person-times, and the expected risk of direct economic losses is 150 million

关 键 词：公共安全 暴雨洪涝 风险分析 受灾人口 经济损失 信息扩散 贵州省遵义市 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]