城市高房价导致少儿抚养比下降了?  

Do high housing prices lead to a drop in the child dependency ratio?

作　　者：褚敏[1] 常钰 CHU Min;CHANG Yu(Center for Industrial and Business Organization,DUFE,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《中国软科学》2022年第8期58-66,共9页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71603045);教育部人文社科规划项目(21YJA790011);辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(L18AJY003);辽宁省教育厅项目(DUFE2017R04)。

摘　　要：利用中国2007—2016年285个地级市的数据,检验了城市房价上涨对少儿抚养比的影响及异质性特征。研究发现,城市房价的快速上涨显著降低了城市整体的少儿抚养比,导致人口结构失衡。进一步研究发现,城市房价与人口结构变化之间的矛盾在东部沿海城市和人口规模比较大的城市更加突出,这与房地产市场机制“扭曲程度”有关。中间机制分析表明,城市房价上涨会导致人均储蓄和人均消费增加,对生育资源形成明显的“挤占效应”与“财富效应”,进而通过资源错配机制对城市整体生育水平形成抑制效应,降低少儿抚养比,导致人口结构失衡。This paper examined the impact of urban housing price increases on child dependency ratio and heterogeneity using data from 285 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2016.The study found that the rapid rise in urban housing prices significantly reduces the overall child dependency ratio in the city and exacerbates the imbalance of the demographic structure.Further research found that the contradiction between urban housing prices and population structure is more prominent in the eastern coastal cities and cities with larger populations,which is related to the“distortion degree”of the real estate market mechanism.The analysis of the intermediate mechanism showed that the rise of urban housing prices led to an increase in per capita savings and per capita consumption,and an obvious“squeezing effect”and"wealth effect"on the fertility resources,which will have an inhibitory effect on the overall fertility level of the city by the resource mismatch mechanism,leading to an imbalance in the population structure.

关 键 词：住房价格 生育率 少儿抚养比 人口结构 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]