安得广厦千万间:儒家传统与房价增长  

Housing for All:The Confucian Tradition and the Growth of House Prices

作　　者：陈刚[1,2] 卢彦西[1] Gang Chen;Yanxi Lu(School of Economics,Southwest University of Political Science and Law)

机构地区：[1]西南政法大学经济学院 [2]西南政法大学制度经济学研究中心

出　　处：《经济学报》2022年第2期236-266,共31页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“儒家文化对家庭金融行为的影响研究:微观机理与实证检验”(项目批准号:21XJA790001);西南政法大学研究生科研创新项目“儒家传统与减税降费”的资助。

摘　　要：房价高涨使住房问题成为当前中国社会各界普遍关注的重要民生问题。儒家的政治抱负一向着重修齐治平,推崇施行以民为本的仁政,重视改善和提升社会民生,所以儒家文化传统可能对地方官员的施政理念及行为,进而对房价增长有着重要的影响。基于地方官员出生地和任职地相分离的政策框架,本文采用2009—2015年中国283个地级市数据,使用流行病学方法估计了以明清进士密度衡量的儒家文化传统对房价增长的影响。研究发现,深受儒家文化传统影响的地方官员显著降低了房价。具体地说,地方官员出生地进士密度每增加1个标准差,其任职地实际房价将降低1.13%左右,实际房价的年均增长率将下降1.01%左右,这一发现在一系列检验中都是稳健的。扩展分析表明,儒家文化弱化了地方官员源自晋升激励而推高房价的动机;优化商住房用地的供地结构是深受儒家文化传统影响的地方官员调控房价的重要政策工具。Rising housing prices have made housing an important livelihood issue of concern to all sectors of Chinese society. The Confucian political ambition has always focused on the cultivation of xiu-qi-zhi-pin, the implementation of people-oriented benevolent governance, and the improvement and enhancement of social livelihoods, so the Confucian culture may have an important influence on the governance philosophy and behavior of local officials, and thus on the growth of housing prices. Based on the policy framework of separating the birthplace and office of local officials, this paper uses data from 283 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009-2015 to estimate the impact of Confucian culture, measured by the density of Jinshi in Ming and Qing Dynasties, on housing price growth using an epidemiological approach. It finds that local officials heavily influenced by Confucian culture significantly reduce house prices. Specifically, for every one standard deviation increase in the density of jinshi in a local official’s birthplace, the real house price in their place of employment will decrease by about 1.13%, and the average annual growth rate of real house price will decrease by about 1.01%, a finding that is robust to a series of tests. Extended analysis suggests that Confucian culture weakens the incentives of local officials to push up housing prices due to promotion incentives, and that optimizing the land supply structure for commercial housing sites is an important policy tool for local officials influenced by Confucian culture to regulate housing prices.

关 键 词：儒家文化 官员行为 房价 流行病学方法 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] B222[哲学宗教—中国哲学]