考虑车道排队特征的城市路网交通事故影响范围估计  

Estimation of traffic accidents impact on urban road network considering lane queuing characteristics

作　　者：唐进君 刘鑫源 吉柯 叶峻青[1] TANG Jinjun;LIU Xinyuan;JI Ke;YE Junqing(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2022年第9期2541-2551,共11页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52172310);教育部人文社会科学青年基金资助项目(21YJCZH147);湖南省自然科学基金面上项目(2020JJ4752);中南大学创新驱动项目(2020CX041)。

摘　　要：有效评估城市道路交通事故的影响范围,对快速恢复道路交通、减少连续事故的发生以及实施及时的救援措施具有重要意义。针对事故影响范围,目前国内外的研究主要集中在高速公路,对于城市道路事故影响范围的研究相对较少,特别是在微观层面如何准确估计事故影响在道路上的具体位置,依然存在较大的挑战。首先,定义交叉口延误、路段速度比,根据延误阈值、速度比阈值等指标估计事故影响路段。在此基础上,考虑城市道路交通流在信号控制条件下的间断流特征及交叉口进口道上的分流特征,运用交通波理论计算单车道排队长度,确定事故影响范围的边界。通过分析交通波的传播速度,描述两相邻交叉口路段单车道上车流的排队-消散过程,建立事故影响下车辆排队长度的计算模型。为验证模型的有效性,通过采集长沙市车牌识别数据,结合实地调查,利用VISSIM仿真软件搭建了包含22个交叉口的城市区域路网,并利用实测交通流数据对仿真路网流量进行校正。在此基础上,设计了包含不同事故等级、发生位置和道路等级的事故场景,通过对比实验发现80%的案例中事故影响范围的模型估算值与仿真结果之间的相对误差少于10%。通过进一步分析获得以下结论:事故持续时间越长、占据车道数越多,事故的影响范围越大;距交叉口越近的事故形成拥堵的速度越快、影响范围越大。Effective estimation of the impact area of urban road traffic accidents is of great significance to the rapid recovery of road traffic,the reduction of continuous accidents and the implementation of timely rescue measures.Estimating area of the impact of accidents has received more and more attentions in decades.Previous studies commonly discussed the problem in the scene of highways.However,few efforts have been made on analyzing the impact of the accident on the urban road network.Specifically,how to accurately estimate the geographical coverages of accidents considering the number of lanes and intersections.First,this study defined the threshold of the intersection delay and road section speed ratio,which was used to identify the road segments that were affected by accidents.On this basis,the traffic wave theory was applied to calculate the single-lane queue length and to determine the boundary of the accident impact area.It could consider the intermittent flow characteristics of urban road traffic flow under signal control conditions and the diversion characteristics on the lanes of intersection.By analyzing the propagation speed of traffic waves,the queue-dissipation process of traffic flow on a single lane at two adjacent intersections was described.The calculation model of queuing length under the influence of accidents was established.In order to verify the validity of the model,the License Plate Recognition(LPR)data were collected in Changsha city,and the urban regional road network containing 22 intersections was established using VISSIM simulation based on field investigation.Furthermore,the traffic volumes on the simulated road network were modified using LPR data set.The scenarios of accidents containing different accident levels,locations and road levels were designed to validate proposed method.The simulation results show that the relative errors of the accident impact area between the model results and the simulation results are less than 10%for 80%of total 22 cases.Further conclusions are summari

关 键 词：城市路网 车道排队特征 交通事故影响范围 交通波理论 路网仿真 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]