“双碳”目标、碳税政策与中国制造业产业链韧性  

Dual carbon goals,carbon tax policy,and the industrial chain resilience of China’s manufacturing industry

作　　者：李萌[1] 何宇 潘家华[1] LI Meng;HE Yu;PAN Jiahua(Research Institute for Eco‑civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028,China;College of Economics and Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang Hubei 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院生态文明研究所,北京100028 [2]三峡大学经济与管理学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2022年第9期22-34,共13页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“面向碳中和的中国经济转型模式构建研究”(批准号:TZ140001)。

摘　　要：碳达峰、碳中和目标的提出,意味着在未来中长期范围内实现减碳乃至净零碳将是中国经济社会发展过程中的重点内容。中国作为全球制造业大国,制造业产业链的发展对能源具有强依赖性。研究“双碳”目标下碳税政策对中国制造业产业链的作用传导机制,探索如何发挥政府的引导作用做好统筹推进碳减排和产业链发展韧性,对于统筹中国经济安全与发展、推进中国制造业转型升级和确保“双碳”工作平稳、有序、可持续具有重要的战略意义。文章根据2017年中国多区域投入产出表,通过基于产业链总值核算法和产业链增加值核算法两类情形下的碳税政策进行反事实分析,研究发现:中国31个省份制造业的产业链呈现显著的本地关联,表明产业链关联对于贸易成本是敏感的。而基于总值核算的碳税政策和基于增加值核算的碳税政策均会导致中国制造业产业链的波动,但基于总值核算的碳税政策对中国制造业产业链波动的影响更大。反事实模拟分析的结果表明,基于总值核算的碳税政策无法避免政策成本沿着产业链积累和跨区域产业链的不对称减排问题,从而导致跨区域的碳转移现象,而基于增加值核算的碳税政策能够较为有效地克服跨区域跨行业的政策外部性问题,在一定程度上避免产业链的“碳泄漏”,有利于政策上实现“碳公平”。进一步研究发现,在基于产业链增加值的碳税政策框架下,存在最优碳税税率使得碳税政策对中国制造业产业链的冲击最小。据此,研究提出完善“双碳”目标下碳排放核算方案、探索“双碳”政策背景下的全产业链系统治理方案、探索“双碳”目标下跨区域协同治理方案等政策建议。With the proposal of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,it is certain that carbon reduction and net-zero carbon emissions will be the focus of China’s medium and long-term economic and social development.As a major manufacturing country in the world,China is highly dependent on energy when it seeks to develop the industrial chain of its manufacturing industry.This article studied the transmission mechanism of how the carbon tax policy affected the industrial chain of China’s manufacturing industry under the dual carbon goals and how to give play to the government’s guiding role and do a good job in promoting carbon emission reduction and industrial chain resilience.The results of the current study are expected to be of great significance to the overall planning of China’s economic security and development,the promotion of the transformation and upgrading of the country’s manufacturing industry,and the assurance of stable and sustainable development.Based on China’s multi-regional input-output table in 2017,this study conducted a counterfactual analysis of the carbon tax policy by using the gross value accounting method and the value-added accounting method.The research found that:The industrial chain of China’s manufacturing industry in 31 provinces and cities showed significant local correlation,indicating that the correlation between industrial chains was sensitive to trade costs.Both the carbon tax policy based on the gross value accounting method and the value-added accounting method would lead to the fluctuation of the industrial chain of China’s manufacturing industry,but the carbon tax policy based on the gross value accounting method had a greater impact on the fluctuation of the industrial chain.The results of the counterfactual simulation analysis showed that the carbon tax policy based on the gross value accounting method could not avoid the accumulation of policy costs and asymmetric emission reduction along the industrial chain,which led to the phenomenon of inter-regional ca

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 碳税政策 制造业 产业链韧性 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]