碳中和实现途径与政策选择——基于空间溢出效应的视角  

Approaches and policy choices for carbon neutrality:based on the perspective of spatial spillover effect

作　　者：杜鹏程[1] 洪宇 DU Pengcheng;HONG Yu(School of Business,Anhui University,Hefei Anhui 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学商学院,安徽合肥230601 [2]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2022年第9期35-46,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“研发团队领导跨界行为对团队成员适应性绩效的跨层次影响研究”(批准号:71872001);安徽省软科学研究重点项目“中国(安徽)自由贸易试验区企业创新能力评价及创新环境建设研究”(批准号:202106f01050025)。

摘　　要：2060年前实现碳中和,是中国为了解决资源环境约束问题、实现经济社会可持续发展的必然选择。如何做好顶层设计,通过制定和实施有效的政策实现碳中和,指引中国绿色低碳可持续转型,现已成为一个值得研究的重大理论问题与现实问题。该研究基于中国2010—2019年30个省份社会、经济和环境数据,采用空间计量方法,选取技术中和与环境中和作为碳中和双重促进机制,在时空演变的框架下,对中国区域碳中和能力的空间溢出效应及驱动因素进行了系统的考察,检验了中国是否存在由能源变革和环境绿化引致对碳源的双向抑制作用,进而达到总体碳中和的逻辑事实,并探究了这些驱动因素的作用强度。研究结果表明:①探索性空间数据分析结果显示,中国碳中和能力较高的聚集区呈现“向西辐射”的演变趋势,而碳中和能力较低的聚集区呈现“向北转移”的演变特征。②空间计量分析结果显示,碳中和能力在空间维度、时间维度和时空维度分别表现出多边效应、滚雪球效应和荣辱与共效应。③关键因素识别结果显示,能源变革是技术减排的重要手段,环境绿化是减碳平衡的有效措施,二者均在一定程度上抑制了大气中二氧化碳浓度,并增强了碳中和能力。④与环境绿化相比,能源变革的驱动作用更为重要。该项研究的政策含义为:中国政府应综合考虑碳中和能力的多边效应、滚雪球效应和荣辱与共效应,通过采取科学的顶层设计、差异化的地区治理、一体化的区块联控等措施,形成卓有成效的政策连贯机制,碳中和目标将更有可能取得成功。Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 is an inevitable choice for China to solve resource and environmental constraints and achieve sustainable economic and social development.How to do well with top-level design,that is,how to achieve carbon neutrality through the formulation and implementation of effective policies and to guide China’s green and low-carbon sustainable transformation,has become a major theoretical and practical issue worthy of study.Based on the social,economic,and environmental data of 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2010 to 2019,this study adopted the spatial measurement method and selected technological neutrality and environmental neutrality as the dual promotion mechanisms of carbon neutrality.The spatial spillover effect and driving factors of regional carbon neutrality capacity were systematically investigated,and it was tested whether there was a two-way inhibitory effect on carbon sources caused by energy reform and afforestation in China,which led to the logical fact that overall carbon neutrality was achieved.This study then further explored the strength of these drivers.The results showed that:①The exploratory spatial data analysis results revealed that accumulation areas with high carbon neutrality capacity in China showed a‘radiating westward’evolution trend,while accumulation areas with low carbon neutrality capacity showed a‘moving north’evolution feature.②The results of spatial econometric analysis showed that carbon neutrality exhibited multilateral effect,snowball effect,and honor and disgrace effect in the spatial,temporal,and spatio-temporal dimensions,respectively.③The identification results of key factors showed that energy transformation was an important means of technological emission reduction and afforestation was an effective measure for balancing carbon reduction.④Compared with afforestation,the driving role of energy change was more important.The policy implication of this study is that the Chinese government should comprehen

关 键 词：碳中和 技术中和 环境中和 政策选择 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]