气候变化科学与碳中和  

Climate change science and carbon neutrality

作　　者：袁佳双 张永香[1] YUAN Jiashuang;ZHANG Yongxiang(National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2022年第9期47-52,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“碳中和视域下中国参与全球气候治理的制度性挑战及对策研究”(批准号:21AZD123);生态环境部应对气候变化国际合作和履约项目“巴黎协定实施后续相关能力建设问题研究”(2022-2023);中国气象局重点创新团队“气候变化检测、影响和对”(批准号:CMA2022ZD03)。

摘　　要：全球气候治理的行动离不开气候变化科学认知的进步。随着世界主要国家和地区相继宣布其碳中和目标,应对气候变化问题正经历着从科学探索、控制温室气体排放、到低碳转型、共建人类命运共同体的系统变革。文章通过追溯全球气候治理的历史演进和碳中和的科学基础,指出气候变化科学进步在量化温室效应、明确当前气候变化归因和估算碳排放空间发挥的重要作用,并促使气候治理由定性描述逐渐转化为定量目标,同时确定了通过碳中和来实现应对气候变化的路径。文章通过系统分析中国气候变化科学现状,指出尽管中国科研水平在不断提高,但与美国等发达国家相比仍存在很大差距。主要表现为重大研究成果不足,研究领域分布严重不均衡、影响面窄,不足以有效服务国家气候变化内政外交等。中国碳中和之路任重道远,急需科技支撑助力。文章最后提出应围绕实现碳中和目标,优化完善中国气候变化科学建设,建立气候变化科学的“1+N”发展体系,引导研究与发展需求相结合;建立对应人才体系,在国际气候治理中积极有效地发挥中国智慧,助力中国碳中和的实现。The action of global climate governance is inseparable from the progress of scientific understanding of climate change.With major countries and regions in the world announcing their carbon neutrality goals,addressing climate change has gradually evolved from a scientific exploration and a systematic transformation of controlling greenhouse gas emissions to low-carbon transition and building a community with a shared future for mankind.By tracing the history of global climate governance and the scientific basis of carbon neutrality,this study points out the important role of scientific progress in quantifying the greenhouse effect,clarifying the attribution of current climate change,and estimating the carbon emission budget.It also promotes the gradual transformation of global climate governance from a qualitative goal to a quantitative goal,and identifies pathways to address climate change through carbon neutrality.Through a systematic analysis of the current status of climate change science in China,this study points out that although China’s research is making continuous progress,there is still a big gap compared with developed countries such as the United States.It is mainly manifested in insufficient research results on major issues,unbalanced distribution of research fields,and narrow influence,which is insufficient to effectively serve China’s domestic and foreign policy-making concerning climate chang.China has a long way to go to carbon neutrality and urgently needs scientific and technological support.Hence,it is proposed to optimize and improve the discipline construction of climate change science in China around the goal of carbon neutrality,establish a‘1+N’development system for climate change science;guide the combination of research and development needs;and establish a talent system to actively and effectively participate in global climate governance with the contribution of Chinese wisdom.

关 键 词：气候变化科学 气候治理 碳中和 科学布局 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]