基于ISM-BN的国际铁路工程工期风险预警  

Early Warning of Construction Period Risk of International Railway Projects Based on ISM-BN

作　　者：申建红 尹琪[1] 张宇馨 张超 SHEN Jianhong;YIN Qi;ZHANG Yuxin;ZHANG Chao(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266500,China;Research Center for Smart City Construction Management,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266500,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,山东青岛266500 [2]青岛理工大学智慧城市建设管理研究中心,山东青岛266500

出　　处：《沈阳大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第5期389-397,共9页Journal of Shenyang University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71471094)。

摘　　要：基于解释结构模型和贝叶斯网络建立了国际铁路工程工期风险预警模型。首先,运用解释结构模型对国际铁路项目工期风险因素进行层次划分,绘制风险因素结构关系图,为贝叶斯网络结构提供初始排序;其次,采用Netica软件对贝叶斯网络结构进行参数学习,得到工期延期概率,并对预警模型逆向推理和敏感性分析获取关键影响因素;最后,以印度尼西亚境内雅加达至万隆段高速铁路项目为例验证了模型的可行性。Based on the explanatory structural model and Bayesian network,a risk early warning model for the construction period of international railway projects was established.Firstly,the explanatory structure model was used to divide the risk factors of the construction period of the international railway project into layers,and the structural relationship diagram of the risk factors was drawn to provide the initial order for the Bayesian network structure;Secondly,Netica software was used to learn the parameters of the Bayesian network structure to obtain the probability of project delay,and to obtain the key influencing factors through reverse reasoning and sensitivity analysis of the early warning model;Finally,the feasibility of the model was verified by taking the high-speed railway project from Jakarta to Bandung in Indonesia as an example.

关 键 词：工期风险 ISM BN 国际铁路工程 风险预警 

分 类 号：TU71[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]