政策不确定性如何影响企业绩效——一项基于Meta分析的检验  

How Does Policy Uncertainty Effect Enterprises’ Performance: a Test of Meta-Analysis

作　　者：张阿城 曾婧婧[2,3] Zhang A'cheng;Zeng Jingjing(School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China;School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;Institute of Income Distribution&Public Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030 [2]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院 [3]中南财经政法大学收入分配与现代财政学科创新引智基地,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2022年第20期52-62,共11页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71974203);中央高校基本科研业务经费项目(2021);高等学校学科创新引智项目(B20084)。

摘　　要：企业发展与宏观政策环境密不可分,关于政策不确定性与企业绩效的关系仍有诸多未解之惑。根据企业绩效的具体内容将其细分为企业经营绩效、创新绩效以及投资绩效,采用Meta分析方法,揭示政策不确定性对企业绩效3个方面的不同影响,并分析二者关系的调节因素。结果发现:政策不确定性能够抑制企业经营绩效和投资绩效,但能够显著提升企业创新绩效。由于存在企业性质、企业规模、市场化程度和政治关联等调节因素差异,导致政策不确定性与企业绩效关系研究存在分歧。结论能够为政策不确定性环境下企业创新发展战略实施提供借鉴,并为地方政府官员更替、公共政策制定等提供参考。As an important carrier of economic development, enterprises are sensitive to the environmental fluctuations caused by policy uncertainties. The relationship between enterprise development and macroeconomic environment is inseparable, but there are still many questions to be answered about the relationship between policy uncertainty and enterprises’ performance. Many researchers have made empirical studies on the relationship between policy uncertainty and enterprises’ performance, but there is generally a controversy whether policy uncertainty promotes or inhibits enterprises’ performance? Therefore, this study focuses on solving the following three questions. First, does policy uncertainty inhibit enterprise performance or promote enterprise performance? Second, for different types of enterprise performance, does policy uncertainty have the same effect? Third, how can situational factors adjust their relationship in the process of policy uncertainty affecting enterprise performance?This paper subdivides enterprises’ performance into firm operating performance, innovation performance, and investment performance according to their components, and uses meta-analysis to reveal the different effects of policy uncertainty and enterprises’ performance and to investigate which factors adjust the relationship. This study takes the keywords of “policy uncertainty, political uncertainty, official change, official turnover, official rotation, corporate performance, corporate innovation, R&D investment, corporate investment, policy uncertainty, political turnover, governors’ turnover, innovation, corporate investment, turnover, innovation, corporate investment” etc. Through the above search path, it is found 2 183 papers related to policy uncertainty or corporate performance, but not all of them meet the data requirements of Meta-analysis. The study further combines the keywords of “policy uncertainty” and “corporate performance”, uses the “advanced search” option for the initial screening of lit

关 键 词：政策不确定性 经营绩效 创新绩效 投资绩效 META分析 

分 类 号：F272.5[经济管理—企业管理]