近20年我国虚拟水、能消耗及耦合和需求预测  

Consumption and coupling of virtual water and virtual energy in the past 20 years and predicting their demand for the next decade in China

作　　者：王风初 曹建军[1] 王宁[1] 焦雨萌 李裕[2] WANG Feng-chu;CAO Jian-jun;WANG Ning;JIAO Yu-meng;LI Yu(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China;School of Chemical Engineering,Northwest Minzu University,Lanzhou 730030,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]西北民族大学化工学院,甘肃兰州730030

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2022年第10期4919-4930,共12页China Environmental Science

基　　金：甘肃省祁连山生态环境研究中心开放基金项目(QLS202002);干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM202105);西北师范大学生态功能高分子材料教育部重点实验室“开放基金”项目(2021-07);甘肃省教育厅创新基金项目(2022B-090)。

摘　　要：基于我国1997~2018年投入产出表及水资源和能源消耗数据,运用投入-产出模型计算了三大产业虚拟水、能的消耗量.在此基础上,通过构建虚拟水-虚拟能系统综合评价指标体系,对虚拟水、能系统发展状况进行了综合评价.与此同时,运用耦合协调度模型,测算了虚拟水、能系统的耦合协调水平.最后,利用指数平滑模型,预测了我国2022~2032年虚拟水、能消耗总量.结果表明:(1)近20年来,三大产业虚拟水、能消耗量均呈上升趋势,但第一、二产业的虚拟水、能消耗占比呈波动下降趋势,而第三产业的呈上升趋势,其中,GDP和第三产业完全用水(能耗)系数是影响我国虚拟水(能)消耗量的重要因素;(2)三大产业直接用水(能耗)系数、完全用水(能耗)系数呈下降趋势,水资源和能源利用效率不断提高;(3)通过间接消耗大量水资源和能源,第二、三产业的用水和能耗乘数较高,是“隐形”的高耗水、高耗能产业;(4)虚拟水-虚拟能系统处于高水平耦合,但仅达到初级协调发展阶段;(5)未来10年,我国虚拟水、能及实体能消耗量仍呈上升趋势,但实体水消耗量呈下降趋势.为此,应通过优化产业结构,提高产业链各环节水、能资源利用效率,改善消费结构,提升虚拟水-虚拟能系统耦合协调度,以缓解我国水资源和能源危机.Based on China's water and energy consumption data from 1997 to 2018,the input-output model was used to estimate the consumption of virtual water and energy in the three industries.At the same time,the coupling coordination degree model was used to simulate the coupling coordination level of the virtual water and energy system.Finally,the exponential smoothing method was used to predict the total consumption of virtual water and energy in China from 2022 to 2032.The results show that:(1)In the last 20years,the consumption of virtual water and energy showed an general upward trend in the three industries,and the proportion of virtual water and energy consumption in the primary and secondary industries showed downward trends,while that in the tertiary industry showed an upward trend;(2)The direct and complete water and energy consumption coefficients of the three industries showed downward trends,resulting in the continuous improvement in the utilization efficiency of water and energy;(3)Through indirectly consuming a large amount of water and energy,the secondary and tertiary industries were thought as"invisible"industries with high water and energy consumption;(4)The virtual water-energy system was in a high level of coupling,but it only reached the primary stage of coordinated development;(5)The consumption of virtual water,energy and physical energy will still increase,while that of physical water will decrease in the decade.Therefore,to alleviate China's water and energy crisis in the future,it is necessary to optimize the industrial structure,increase the utilization efficiency of water and energy resources in all links of the industrial chain,improve the consumption structure,and enhance the coupling and coordination degree of the virtual water-energy system.

关 键 词：虚拟水 虚拟能 投入产出模型 耦合协调度模型 产业结构 

分 类 号：X21[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]