Mathematics of a single-locus model for assessing the impacts of pyrethroid resistance and temperature on population abundance of malaria mosquitoes  

作　　者：Samantha J.Brozak Jemal Mohammed-Awel Abba B.Gumel 

机构地区：[1]School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences,Arizona State University,Tempe,AZ,85287,USA [2]Department of Mathematics,Morgan State University,Baltimore,MD,21251,USA [3]Department of Applied Mathematics,University of Waterloo,Waterloo,Ontario,Canada [4]Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics,University of Pretoria,Pretoria,0002,South Africa

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2022年第3期277-316,共40页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：ABG acknowledges the support,in part,of the Simons Foundation(Award#585022);the National Science Foundation(DMS-2052363);JM-A acknowledges the support,in part,of the National Science Foundation(DMS-2052355(transferred to DMS-2221794));The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their very constructive comments。

摘　　要：This study presents a genetic-ecology modeling framework for assessing the combined impacts of insecticide resistance,temperature variability,and insecticide-based interventions on the population abundance and control of malaria mosquitoes by genotype.Rigorous analyses of the model we developed reveal that the boundary equilibrium with only mosquitoes of homozygous sensitive(resistant)genotype is locally-asymptotically stable whenever a certain ecological threshold,denoted by R^(SS)_(0) eR^(RR)_(0) T,is less than one.Furthermore,genotype i drives genotype j to extinction whenever R j 0>1 and R i 0<1(where i,j SS or RR,with i s j).The model exhibits the phenomenon of bistability when both thresholds are less than one.In such a bistable situation,convergence to any of the two boundary equilibria depends on the initial allele distribution in the state variables of the model.Furthermore,in this bistable case,where maxfR^(SS)_(0);R^(RR)_(0)g<1,the basin of attraction of the boundary equilibrium of the mosquito genotype with lower value of the ecological threshold is larger.Specifically,the basin of attraction of the boundary equilibrium for genotype i is larger than that of genotype j if R^(i)_(0)<R^(j)_(0)<1.When both ecological thresholds exceed one eminfR^(SS)_(0);R^(RR)_(0)g>1T,the two boundary equilibria lose their stability,and a coexistence equilibrium(where all three mosquito genotypes coexist)becomes locally-asymptotically stable.Global sensitivity analysis shows that the key parameters that greatly influence the dynamics and population abundance of resistant mosquitoes include the proportion of new adult mosquitoes that are females,the insecticide-induced mortality rate of adult female mosquitoes,the coverage level and efficacy of adulticides used in the community,the oviposition rates for eggs of heterozygous and homozygous resistant genotypes,and the modification parameter accounting for the reduction in insecticide-induced mortality due to resistance.Numerical simulations show that the adult mosquito popu

关 键 词：MALARIA Insecticide resistance GENOTYPE PYRETHROID EQUILIBRIA Population genetics 

分 类 号：O17[理学—数学] R531.3[理学—基础数学]