混凝土坝位移FEM-HST混合预测模型研究  

Study on FEM-HST hybrid prediction model for displacement of concrete dams

作　　者：刘昌伟 周天宇 费新峰 孔庆梅 王进廷[1] 潘坚文[1] LIU Changwei;ZHOU Tianyu;FEI Xinfeng;KONG Qingmei;WANG Jinting;PAN Jianwen(State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;State Power Investment Corporation Qinghai Yellow River Electric Power Technology Co.,Ltd.,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084 [2]国家电投集团青海黄河电力技术有限责任公司,西宁810016

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2022年第10期152-159,共8页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52022047,52192672);黄河水电公司科技项目(HGS-KJ)。

摘　　要：开展大坝安全监控模型的研究可以对监测异常值进行预警,有助于监测大坝的运行状态,保障其安全运行。本文基于混凝土坝的监测数据,结合有限元(FEM)分析和传统的混凝土坝位移统计分析(HST),建立混凝土坝长期运行位移FEM-HST混合预测模型,其中水压分量通过有限元计算获得,有限元模型的材料参数根据实际测点监测数据反演得到;温度分量采用简谐温度模型;时效分量采用时间的线性函数和对数函数的线性组合统计模型。所建立的FEM-HST混合模型显著改进了HST模型的预测精度和稳定性,可反映大坝和地基的结构和材料特性,能够更好预测极端荷载工况下大坝的位移,这有助于监控大坝在极端工况下的工作性态。A dam safety monitoring model can provide an early warning of the monitored outliers,which helps monitor the operation status of a dam to ensure its safe operation.Based on the prototype monitoring data of a concrete dam and combined with analysis of finite element method(FEM)and traditional statistical analysis(HST),a FEM-HST hybrid prediction model of concrete dam displacement in longterm operation is developed in this paper.It calculates hydrostatic pressure components using a finite element model,and back-calculates material parameters from the monitoring data.Additionally,temperature components are calculated by a simple harmonic temperature model;time components by a linear combination model of a linear function and a logarithmic function.This hybrid model is a significant improvement on the HST model in prediction accuracy and model stability,better describing the structural and material characteristics of a dam and its foundation and better predicting its displacement under extreme loads.This helps monitor the working behavior of a dam under extreme conditions.

关 键 词：龙羊峡拱坝 水平位移 混合模型 水压确定性模型 简谐温度模型 

分 类 号：TV698.11[水利工程—水利水电工程]