道路容量不确定情形下可靠应急疏散路径规划问题  

Reliable emergency evacuation route planning under road capacity uncertainty

作　　者：代文强[1] 陈琳 章潇月 DAI Wenqiang;CHEN Lin;ZHANG Xiaoyue(School of Management and Economics,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu 611731,China)

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,成都611731

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2022年第9期2486-2495,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71871045)。

摘　　要：本文提出道路容量不确定的基于可靠性的应急疏散路径规划(包含路径的选择和随时间的流量分配)模型.现有的模型假设在制定路径规划时就已知灾害发生后的道路容量,或者为确切不变常数,或者为精确概率分布函数.本文假设道路容量的概率分布难以精确获知,仅知部分分布信息,利用分布鲁棒优化方法,构建寻求以已知信息为特征的不确定集的最坏情形下的可靠疏散路径规划.基于交通流的网络拥塞最小化原则,建立了以最小拥塞概率为目标的机会约束模型,以保证应急疏散路径规划方案分配的流量不超过灾害发生后实际的道路容量,进一步确保路径规划方案的可靠性.给出了求解方法,进行了仿真分析,验证了方法的有效性和疏散路径方案的可靠性.This paper proposes a reliability-based emergency evacuation route planning model(including route selection and flow distribution over time) with uncertain road capacity.Existing models assume that the road capacity after a disaster is known when the route plan is made,either as an exact constant constant or as an exact probability distribution function.This paper assumes that the probability distribution of road capacity is difficult to know accurately,and only part of the distribution information is known.Using the method of distributionally robust optimization,the worst-case reliable evacuation route plan is constructed in which an ambiguity set characterized by known information is sought.Based on the principle of network breakdown minimization of traffic flow,a chance constraint model with minimum congestion probability as the goal is established to ensure that the flow allocated by the emergency evacuation route plan does not exceed the actual road capacity after the disaster,and further ensures the reliability of the route plan.The solution method is given,and the simulation analysis is carried out to verify the validity of the method and the reliability of the evacuation route plan.

关 键 词：应急疏散 路径规划 道路容量不确定 分布鲁棒优化 

分 类 号：O221.5[理学—运筹学与控制论]