中苏缔约后国民政府路径分歧的发展与终结(1937.8—1938.1)  

Development and End of the Path Differences after the Sino-Soviet Agreement,from Aug. 1937 to Jan. 1938

作　　者：鹿锡俊[1,2] Lu Xijun

机构地区：[1]日本大东文化大学 [2]南京大学中华民国史研究中心

出　　处：《抗日战争研究》2022年第3期4-29,M0003,共27页Studies of the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression

摘　　要：1937年8月中苏缔约后,国民政府基于错误的推演,寄希望于以苏联参战实现军事胜日的“苏联路径”。两个月后,随着推演的落空,很多人转向以“倚德议和”为目的的“德国路径”。11月初的第一次德国调停与国民政府高层“反共”执念的复炽相互作用,加剧了国民政府内部的路径分歧,赞同“德国路径”者还尝试从防止“造共”的维度劝告日本“悔悟”。其后,“张冲口信”铸成蒋介石对苏联的误判,与第二次德国调停相重叠,促使蒋介石交叉实行“以德促苏”与“倚德议和”,但国民政府的主流却进一步向“德国路径”倾斜。12月下旬日本对华条件更加严苛,国民政府对此存在三种不同意见,最终对日本的条件既不接受也未拒绝。1938年1月日本切断“德国路径”后,国民政府在别无选择中被迫转向长期抗战。在此过程中,日本“共同防共”等条件的压迫,使苏联因素对国民政府发挥了鼓舞抗日与阻止屈服的作用;日本则在代为国民政府终结路径分歧的同时,走上与既定目标适得其反的绝路。After the Sino-Soviet agreement in Aug. 1937, the Nationalist government, based on erroneous deduction, expressed the hope of the “Soviet Path” to achieve the military victory with the Soviet Union participating in the war. Two months later, as the deduction failed, many people turned to the “German Path” for the purpose of “relying on Germany to make peace.” The first German mediation in early November and the revival of the “anti-Communist” obsession of the leadership of the Nationalist government interacted, and intensified the “Path Differences” within the Nationalist government. Those who agreed with the “German Path” also tried to advise Japan of “repentance” from the dimension of preventing to make “Communists.” Later, the “Zhang Chong message” led to Chiang Kai-shek’s misjudgment of the Soviet Union, which overlapped with the second German mediation, prompting Chiang Kai-shek to cross-over the policies of “promoting the Soviet Union by Germany” and “relying on Germany to make peace,” but the mainstream of the Nationalist government was further tilted to the “German Path.” In late December, Japan had suggested more stringent conditions to China, and there appeared three different opinions in the Nationalist government. It ultimately neither accepted nor rejected Japan’s conditions. After Japan cut off the “German Path” in Jan. 1938, the Nationalist government was forced to turn to a long war of resistance without any other choice. In this process, the oppression of Japan’s “commonly defending the Communist” and other conditions made the Soviet Union factor work for the Nationalist government to encourage the resistance and prevent the yield. On the other hand, Japan took a road to ruin itself which was opposite to its established goals while ending the path differences for the Nationalist government.

关 键 词：国民政府 苏联 日本 德国 抗日战争 

分 类 号：K265[历史地理—历史学] D693[历史地理—中国史]