基于故障树的复杂航天系统故障预测方法  

A fault prediction method based on fault tree method for a complex space system

作　　者：李赣华 董黎[1,2] 李显武 邰能建[1,2] 夏克强 邰文星[1,2] 安源 Li Ganhua;Dong Li;Li Xianwu;Tai Nengjian;Xia Keqiang;Tai Wenxing;An Yuan(State Key Laboratory of Astronautic Dynamics,Xi′an 710043,China;Xi′an Satellite Control Center,Xi′an 710043,China)

机构地区：[1]国家宇航动力学实验室,陕西西安710043 [2]西安卫星测控中心,陕西西安710043

出　　处：《电子技术应用》2022年第10期54-59,共6页Application of Electronic Technique

摘　　要：针对航天数据处理中心运控管理系统长期不间断高可靠运行要求,采用了基于规则和故障树分析的故障预测方法,设计了航天数据处理中心运控管理系统的故障预测分系统。首先提出了航天数据处理中心软硬件故障诊断分系统架构;其次设计了可视化故障树和规则相结合的推理方法,实现了基于故障树和规则的系统故障诊断;然后在故障诊断的基础上,通过趋势预测方法的历史数据学习结合人工手段,选择预测方法进行故障预测;最后通过预测结果与实测数据比对,验证了方法的可用性和有效性,并通过系统应用,有效地提前避免了系统故障的出现。The space data processing center should be on-line running without stop in highly reliability and availability,so this paper presents a fault prediction method based on rule and fault tree,and designs the fault prediction system for processing management system of space data processing center.Firstly,the architecture of fault detection is designed for software and hardware of the space data processing center.Secondly,the derivation method is presented based on fault tree and rule of visualization to realize the fault function of the processing management system.Then,based on the fault detection,the fault prediction method is proposed using auto-selection method and artificial method,after the learning method is used between prediction result and historical data.At last,the application of the system is realized with the using of the method presented in this paper.On the comparison of the prediction result with the real data,the method of this paper is proved effective and efficient.

关 键 词：复杂系统 故障预测 故障树 航天数据处理中心 

分 类 号：TN820.4[电子电信—信息与通信工程]