老旧小区改造对住房价值影响评估——来自南京市的实证经验  

An Impact Evaluation of the Old Neighborhood Renewal Project on Housing Value:Empirical Evidence from Nanjing

作　　者：马鑫 侯嘉奕 黄涛[1] Ma Xin;Hou Jiayi;Huang Tao(Guanghua School of Management,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院,100871

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2022年第8期119-138,共20页Nankai Economic Studies

摘　　要：老旧小区改造具有改善居住环境和提升住房价值的重要作用,“十四五”期间,全国范围内将有超过10万个老旧小区面临改造。评估以往改造政策的效果有助于政策的制定,但目前鲜有文献对此进行研究。本文以房价为切入点,利用南京市2012—2020年二手房成交数据,分析2017—2020年的老旧小区改造工程对住房价值的影响,并进行异质性和成本收益分析。主要结论为:(1)改造工程使得二手房成交单价平均上升4.97%,此效应逐年增强且十分稳健;(2)改造工程对于不同类型住房的影响具有异质性,高房龄、小面积、低层建筑的房屋受益更多;(3)平均而言,改造工程对住房价值提升的货币化衡量不低于1225元/平方米,达综合改造成本的两倍多。老旧小区改造能以低成本、短周期、高回报的形式提升存量房居民生活品质和房产价值,并推进城市更新、拉动内需。Improving the living environment is an important way to enhance social welfare,and the renewal of old neighborhood is a practicable way to achieve this goal,which is also a livelihood project vigorously promoted by the Chinese government.During the fourteenth Five Year Plan period,more than 100,000 old neighborhoods are planned to be renovated across the country,which will be a huge market involving hundreds of millions of residents and cost hundreds of billions of yuan.The evaluation of the effect of this project in the past is of great help to its future expansion,but there is still little relevant research yet.In this paper,we analyze the impact of the"Old Neighborhood Renewal Project"on housing value from 2017 to 2020 by using the transaction data of second-hand houses in Nanjing City,and evaluate the heterogeneity effect of the project,followed by a cost-benefit analysis.Our results are as follows:①The average transaction price of secondhand housing increased by 4.97%due to the renewal project,and this impact is robust under a series of tests and increases year by year;②the impact on different types of housing is heterogeneous.Houses with higher age and smaller are more beneficial;③on average,housing value improvement by the renewal project is no less than 1225 yuan/m2,which is more than two times of the comprehensive renewal cost.

关 键 词：老旧小区改造 政策评估 二手房价格 PSM-DID 

分 类 号：H53[语言文字] I38[文学—其他各国文学] R38[医药卫生—医学寄生虫学]