需求呈周期性变化的易腐品在线订购策略  

Online Ordering Strategy for Perishables with Cyclical Demand

作　　者：刘珏夙 LIU Juesu(School of Management,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510520,China)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学管理学院,广东广州510520

出　　处：《物流技术》2022年第10期62-67,共6页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：当需求以某一固定规律呈现出周期性变化时,忽视该规律的报童订购决策将导致其期望收益减少。结合这种实际情况,在传统多阶段报童问题中考虑了周期性变化的需求特征。主要应用集成静态专家意见的弱集成算法给出了该问题的在线订购策略,并从理论上证明了策略实现的累积收益和最优固定专家意见的累积收益几乎一样多。最后用数值算例的结果验证了考虑需求周期性变动的订购策略能够提高累积收益,且该订购策略具有较强的竞争性能。In light of a demand which shows fixed cyclical pattern,the ordering decision obtained through the newsboys model which ignores such pattern will lead to decreased expected returns.To remedy this shortcoming,this paper considers the cyclical characteristics of the demand in the traditional multi-stage newsboy problem,used the weak ensemble algorithm integrated with the static expert opinion method to give the corresponding online ordering strategy,and proved in theory that the cumulative gains achieved by this strategy are almost the same as those by the optimal fixed expert opinion method.Finally,using a numerical example,it verifies that the ordering strategy considering cyclical changes in demand can improve the cumulative revenue,giving the ordering strategy a strong competitive edge.

关 键 词：需求周期性 易腐品 多阶段报童问题 在线订购策略 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F724[经济管理—国民经济] F224