基于C5.0决策树的船舶交通事故致因分析模型及应用  

Causation analysis model for ship traffic accidents based on C5.0 decision tree and application

作　　者：黄常海[1,2] 沈佳 朱冉超 齐绪存 郑菲 陆浩 HUANG Changhai;SHEN Jia;ZHU Ranchao;QI Xucun;ZHENG Fei;LU Hao(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;School of Naval Architecture,Ocean&Civil Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200240,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]上海交通大学船舶海洋与建筑工程学院,上海200240

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第10期90-99,共10页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51909156);上海市科技创新行动计划项目(22010501800,21692193000,18DZ1206301)。

摘　　要：为减少船舶交通事故的发生,对船舶交通事故的致因展开研究。首先,以事故类型作为输出变量,以船舶交通事故数据为样本,构建基于C5.0算法的船舶交通事故致因路径分析模型;然后,确定事故致因路径分析有效性评价指标;再次,运用“2-4”模型(24Model),对所识别出的不同类型事故致因路径因果关系进一步分析,提出通过切断事故潜在致因路径的船舶交通事故预控措施;最后,将894起船舶交通事故数据样本随机分为80%的训练集和20%的测试集,应用所提出的模型进行分析。结果表明:所提出的模型可以生成不同类型事故的分类规则集,模型分类正确率达到90%以上,且模型具有强的泛化能力。结合分类规则集构建的船舶交通事故致因链为船舶交通事故的防范提供定量化的理论依据。In order to reduce the occurrence of ship accidents,the causation of ship traffic accidents was analyzed.Firstly,a ship traffic accident causation path analysis model based on the C5.0 algorithm was constructed.The model took accident type as the output variable and the ship traffic accident data as samples.Then,the evaluation indexes of validity for path analysis of accident causation were established.Furthermore,the 24Model was used to analyze the causal relationship of different types of accident paths.Finally,the prevention and control measures for ship traffic accidents were proposed by cutting off the potential causation path of accidents.Taking 894 ship traffic accidents as an example,the sample set was randomly divided into 80%training set and 20%test set,and the proposed model was used for analysis.The research results show that the proposed model can generate a set of classification rules for different types of accidents,the classification accuracy rate of the model is over 90%,and the model has a strong generalization ability.The causal chain of ship traffic accidents constructed in combination with the classification rule set provides a quantitative theoretical basis for the prevention of accidents.

关 键 词：C5.0算法 决策树 船舶交通事故 致因路径 致因分析 “2-4”模型(24Model) 

分 类 号：X928.9[环境科学与工程—安全科学]