人口结构与国际资本流动:自然利率渠道  

Population Structure and International Capital Flow: Natural Interest Rate Channel

作　　者：杜婕[1] 张宇[2] DU Jie;ZHANG Yu(Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学东北亚研究院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《当代财经》2022年第10期52-63,共12页Contemporary Finance and Economics

摘　　要：人口因素是影响长期资本流动不可忽视的因素。当前中国不仅面临人口规模即将见顶、远期或将急剧萎缩的总量问题,也面临少子化、老龄化日益加剧的结构性问题,人口快速老龄化将拉低中国均衡状态下的利率水平,即自然利率。构建一般均衡理论模型刻画自然利率渠道的存在和运转机制发现,人口结构变动能够影响均衡状态下自然利率的相对变化,进而影响长期国际资本流动,即自然利率是人口变动影响国际资本流动的重要渠道。随着中国人口老龄化快速加深,劳动人口从相对富余变得相对稀缺,将影响生产活动的劳动-资本投入比,从而推动劳动者工资率上升,自然利率快速下降并趋于稳定。在开放经济下,中国将逐渐成为资本净流出经济体,面临资本净流出困境。人口变动对经济社会发展造成的影响是巨大的,且难以扭转。因此,中国有必要加快构建生育支持体系提升生育率,推进延迟退休政策,做好货币政策工具储备。The demographic factor is a non-negligible factor affecting long-term capital flow. At present, China is not only facing the gross problem of the total population about to peak and in the long term possibly shrinking sharply, but also the structural problem of declining birthrate and aging.The rapid aging of population will pull down China’s interest rate in the equilibrium state, i.e., the natural interest rate. When constructinga general equilibrium theoreticalmodel to depict the existence and the operation mechanism of the natural interest rate channel, it is found that the changes of population structure can affect the relative changes of the natural interest rate in the equilibrium state,thereby affecting the long-term international capital flow,that is, the natural interest rate is an important channel through which population changes affect international capital flow. With the rapid increasing of China’s population aging, the labor force has changed from a relative surplus to a relative scarcity, which will affect the labor-capital input ratio of production activities, thereby driving the labor rate of wages to rise, and the natural interest rate to stabilize after a rapid decline. In the open economy, China will gradually become a net capital outflow economy and face the dilemma of net capital outflow. The impact of population changes on the economic and social development is tremendous and is hardly to reverse. Therefore, it is necessary for China to speed up the construction of a fertility support system to increase the fertility rate, promote the policy of delaying retirement, and make a good reserve of monetary policy tools.

关 键 词：人口结构 老龄化 自然利率 国际资本流动 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]