基于随机规划的高铁列车超售策略分析  

Overbooking strategy analysis of high-speed train based on stochastic programming

作　　者：邓连波[1,2] 许景 彭齐 胡心磊 DENG Lianbo;XU Jing;PENG Qi;HU Xinlei(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China;Rail Data Research and Application Key Laboratory of Hunan Province,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410075 [2]中南大学湖南省轨道交通大数据实验室,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2022年第10期2813-2819,共7页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72171236)。

摘　　要：高铁列车超售策略需要基于客流出行行为和列车能力确定合理的超售数量。当超售数量少于购票后弃乘旅客数量,会造成列车空座损失。超售数量过多,会造成部分旅客被拒载,产生拒载成本。为确定合理的超售数量,探究影响列车运营收益和超售数量的关键因素,对高铁列车超售优化问题和超售策略规律进行研究。考虑旅客的弃乘概率和超售条件下的拒载概率引起的不确定性,将铁路超售净收益细分为客票收益、退票收益和拒载成本3个部分,综合考虑铁路运营收益和社会声誉,以最大拒载概率和最大超售率为约束条件,建立以铁路超售净收益最大化为目标的基于随机规划的非线性整数规划超售模型。并采用具有全局寻优能力的遗传算法求解,优化确定最佳超售数量。结合算例对高铁列车超售策略进行分析,在超售策略下列车的收益提高约3.58%。对弃乘概率、最大拒载概率、最大超售率和单位拒载成本4个重要参数进行灵敏度分析,结果表明:随着弃乘概率的上升,超售收益先增加后降低,弃乘概率较大时采取超售策略会面临着较大的拒载风险;控制最大拒载概率与最大超售率会对超售净收益和超售数量起到相似的影响作用;若加大企业的拒载成本,会使超售策略面临较大的风险,超售数量和超售净收益均会呈下降趋势。The overbooking strategy of high-speed train needs to determine a reasonable overbooking quantity based on passenger flow behavior and train capacity.The empty seats of train arewasted when overbooking quantity is less than the number of passengers who buy tickets but give up boarding.If the overbooking quantity is too large,some passengers are denied boarding(DB),thus resulting in DB cost.In order to determine the reasonable overbooking quantity and explore the key factors affecting the train operating revenue and overbooking quantity,the overbooking optimization problem and overbooking strategy law of high-speed train were studied.Considering the uncertainty caused by the no-show probability of passengers and the DB probability under the condition of overbooking,the railway overbooking net revenue was subdivided into three parts:ticket revenue,refund revenue and DB cost.By considering railway operating revenue and social reputation,the maximum DB probability and maximum overbooking rate were taken as constraints.A nonlinear integer programming overbooking model based on stochastic programming was established to maximize the railway overbooking net revenue.The genetic algorithm with global optimization ability was used to solve the model and determine the optimal overbooking quantity.This study analyzed the overbooking strategy of high-speed train combined with the numerical instance.The train revenue increases by about 3.58%with the overbooking strategy.The sensitivity analysis of the four important parameters of no-show probability,maximum DB probability,maximum overbooking rate and unit DB cost is carried out.The results show that with the increase of no-show probability,the overbooking revenue increases first and then decreases;when the no-show probability is high,the overbooking strategy faces great DB risk;controlling the maximum DB probability and the maximum overbooking rate has a similar effect on the overbooking net revenue and overbooking quantity;increasing the DB cost of enterprise makes overbooking

关 键 词：高铁客票 超售策略 随机规划 拒载成本 弃乘概率 

分 类 号：U2-9[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]