基于GM(1,1)模型的生物质材料产生量预测  

Biomass Material Production Forecast Based on GM(1,1)Model

作　　者：张琳[1] 张志浩 宋扬 ZHANG Lin;ZHANG Zhi-hao;SONG Yang(Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710129,China;Heilongjiang Harbin Eco-environmental Monitoring Center,Harbin 150076,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学,西安710129 [2]黑龙江省哈尔滨生态环境监测中心,哈尔滨150076

出　　处：《应用能源技术》2022年第10期23-27,共5页Applied Energy Technology

摘　　要：随着农业发展进程的加快,生物质材料产生量呈现逐年上升趋势。为了能够科学有效的实现资源二次利用,本文以哈尔滨市为例,基于2016-2020年三大农作物播种面积数据对生物质材料产生量进行估算,通过GM(1,1)模型对2021-2025年的生物质材料产生量进行短期预测,采用灰色建模软件V6.0进行统计分析,得出2021年的生物质材料产生量预测值为333.8810万t,是2016年的1.32倍,2021年的播种面积为3055.96万亩,经公式换算后得出实际生物质材料产生量为345.3843万t,平均相对误差为3.0%。结果表明,采用GM(1,1)预测模型能够很精确的预测哈尔滨市中短期内的生物质材料产生量。该预测方法既可以为秸秆能源化提供思路,也同样适用于以秸秆为主要生物质材料的城市的产生量预测。With the acceleration of agricultural development,biomass material production has been increasing year by year.In order to realize the secondary utilization of resources in a scientific and effective way,this paper takes Harbin as an example to estimate the biomass material production based on the data of the sown area of three crops from 2016 to 2020,and makes a short-term forecast of the biomass material production from 2021 to 2025 by GM(1,1)model.Gray modeling software V6.0 is used for statistical analysis,and the predicted value of biomass material production in 2021 is 33338810 tons,1.32 times of 2016,and the sown area in 2021 is 30559600 mu.After formula conversion,the actual biomass material production is 3453843 tons.The mean relative error is 3.0%.The results showed that GM(1,1)prediction model can accurately predict the biomass material production in Harbin in the short term.This prediction method could not only provide ideas for straw energy,but also be suitable for straw production prediction in cities where straw is the main biomass material.This prediction method can not only provide ideas for turning straw into energy,but also be suitable for straw production prediction in cities where straw is the main biomass material.

关 键 词：秸秆 生物质材料 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计] TK61[理学—数学]