县级尺度下河南省农业投入产出效率与减排潜力分析  

Agricultural input-output efficiency and the potential reduction of emissions in Henan Province at the county scale

作　　者：朱永彬 马晓哲 史雅娟 ZHU Yongbin;MA Xiaozhe;SHI Yajuan(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;College of Geography and Environmental Science,Henan University/Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions(Henan University),Ministry of Education,Kaifeng 475004,China;Beijing City University,Beijing 100083,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049 [3]河南大学地理与环境学院/黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室(河南大学),开封475004 [4]北京城市学院,北京100083 [5]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报（中英文）》2022年第11期1852-1861,共10页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602703);国家自然科学基金项目(41701632)资助。

摘　　要：农业机械化与化学化进程的推进,给农业生产带来一系列环境污染和碳排放问题,因此农业减量投入成为降低农业排放的重要手段。已有研究将碳排放作为非期望产出进而测度农业绿色全要素生产率,但未深入分析碳减排潜力及其来源贡献。本文基于VRS-DEA两阶段模型和DEA-Malmquist方法,对河南省105个县级行政单元2000—2020年的农业投入产出效率进行测算,识别并核算农业生产要素的冗余投入及由此带来的碳减排潜力。研究发现:1)河南省农业投入带来的碳排放已于2016年达峰后开始下降,排放量较高县市主要分布在豫东、豫南等平原地区,单位播种面积排放强度较高县市主要集中于豫北平原。2)2000—2020年60%的县市农业生产效率提升,少数县市农业生产效率下降;22个县市始终处于效率前沿,高效率地区主要集中在豫南和豫北地区,低效率地区主要聚集在城市化延伸辐射地区。3)河南省农业平均减排潜力为农业碳排放的11%左右,城市群周边地区潜在减排率最高,汝州市、新野县、辉县市、淮滨县等地潜在减排量较高,是河南省农业重点减排区域。4)河南省农业投入冗余比例由高到低依次为农膜、农药、化肥、农机和农业劳动力,但由于化肥投入基数大,其带来的潜在减排量占比高达83.5%,因此减少化肥过量投入应是农业减排的重中之重。提高农业投入产出效率并有针对性地减少农业冗余投入,是降低农业碳排放的根本途径。Agricultural modernization and technological progress have substantially improved the efficiency of production.However,the growing dependence on the inputs of agricultural materials has resulted in a series of deleterious issues,such as soil and water pollution,carbon emissions.Previous studies have always considered carbon emissions as an unexpected output when evaluating agricultural green total factor productivity.These studies failed to estimate the potential reduction in carbon emission,as well as the contribution of all sources.This study sought to improve commonly used approaches and enable them to calculate the potential reduction of carbon emissions.To do so,it utilized the variable returns to scale data envelopment analysis(VRS-DEA)two-stage model and the DEA-Malmquist method to evaluate the agricultural input-output efficiency and obtain the abundant input of each material.In this study,six agricultural materials were selected as inputs and five major crop products as outputs with 105 counties/cities in Henan Province,China,as decision-making units from 2000–2020.The results showed the following:1)carbon emissions induced by agricultural inputs began to decline after reaching their peak in 2016.The counties/cities with higher emissions were primarily distributed in the eastern and southern plains.Those with higher intensities of emissions per unit of sown area were primarily concentrated in the northern plains,where have better terrain conditions.2)High-agricultural-efficiency areas were primarily concentrated in southern and northern Henan.In contrast,low-agricultural-efficiency counties/cities were primarily concentrated near urbanized areas,indicating that urbanization has a negative effect on agricultural efficiency.Approximately 60%of the counties/cities improved their agricultural efficiency between 2000 and 2020.Those with decreased agricultural efficiency were primarily located in the central and western regions.They were adjacent to areas with a high urbanization rate and primarily included

关 键 词：农业效率 DEA分析 冗余投入 减排潜力 投入产出 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济] S51[农业科学—作物学] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]