生猪疫情网络关注与猪肉价格波动:加剧还是抑制?  

Network Attention to Pig Epidemic and Fluctuations of Pork Price:Aggravation or Inhibition?

作　　者：马驰 陶建平 刘苇 MA Chi;TAO Jianping;LIU Wei

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院/湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第6期22-34,共13页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“突发动物疫情管控的产业损害、可挽救性测度及实现路径研究”(71773033);中央高校基本科研业务费专项“突发事件、网络舆情与农产品价格波动研究——以非洲猪瘟为例”(2662020JGPYD02)。

摘　　要：网络媒体时代下,生猪疫情网络关注放大了生猪疫情事件的影响,引致猪肉及生猪产业链价格异常波动。基于信息传播视角,根据微博、微信与百度网络爬虫数据构建生猪疫情网络关注度指数,采用2011年1月至2021年6月价格数据,运用BEKKGARCH和TVP-VAR-SV模型探究生猪疫情网络关注对猪肉价格波动的作用机制。研究发现:(1)生猪疫情网络关注对猪肉价格波动具有显著时变影响,生猪疫情严重暴发时,两者之间存在正相关关系。(2)生猪疫情网络关注的猪肉价格波动冲击存在明显的反转效应,短期内生猪疫情网络关注抑制猪肉价格波动,而中长期则会加剧猪肉价格波动且影响具有持续性。非洲猪瘟时点下,网络关注的猪价波动冲击效应在2个月由负转为正,且非洲猪瘟集中暴发期下冲击效应高于疫情初始期。(3)进一步地,在网络关注冲击下,生猪产业链价格波动呈现出短期内抑制和长期加剧的反转效应,且产业链价格波动的纵向溢出效应存在非对称性,下游产品价格波动对冲击的反应速度、程度更大。农业部门应密切观察生猪疫情网络关注动态变动趋势,及时预警猪肉价格波动并调整猪肉储备策略。In the era of network media,the network attention to the pig epidemic amplifies the impact of the pig epidemic,and leads to extraordinary price fluctuations in pork and pig industrial chain.Based on the perspective of information transmission,the network attention index of pig epidemic is constructed according to the data of Weibo,Wechat and Baidu,and the price data from January 2011 to June 2021 and the BEKK-GARCH and TVP-VAR-SV models are used to explore the mechanism of the network attention to pig epidemic on pork price fluctuations.The study finds that the network attention to pig epidemic has a significant time-varying impact on fluctuations of pork price,with a positive correlation between the two in the serious outbreak.Moreover,the impact of network attention to pig epidemic on pork price fluctuations has a significant reversal effect.The network attention to pig epidemic inhibits the pork price fluctuations in the short term,but aggravates the fluctuations of pork price in the medium and long term,and the impact is sustainable.The impact effect of fluctuations of pig epidemic under African Swine Fever timing,which is a concern of the network,turns from negative to positive in 2 months,and the impact effect is higher under the period of concentrated outbreak of ASF than the initial period of the epidemic.Furthermore,due to the impact of network attention,the price fluctuations of the pig industry chain shows the reversal effect of inhibition in the short term and aggravation in the long term,and the longitudinal spillover effect of the industrial chain price fluctuations is asymmetric.Price fluctuations of downstream product respond to impact faster and more violently.Agricultural departments should closely observe the dynamic trend of network attention to live pig epidemic,timely provide early warning of pork price fluctuations and adjust the pork reserve strategy.

关 键 词：生猪疫情 网络关注 猪肉 价格波动 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]