后危机时代新兴经济体非金融企业债务走势、风险及启示  

Trends and Risks of Non-financial Corporate Debt in Emerging Economies in the Post-crisis Era and Its Implications to China

作　　者：赵新泉 ZHAO Xin-quan(Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation,Ministry of Commerce,PRC,Beijing 100710,China)

机构地区：[1]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院,北京市100710

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2022年第11期118-128,共11页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“双循环新发展格局下人民币汇率的资源配置效应研究”(21BJL015)。

摘　　要：2008年国际金融危机爆发后,新兴经济体非金融企业杠杆率的快速攀升在全球范围内引发广泛关注。恒大等房地产巨头接连在债务市场违约凸显化解企业债务风险、维护金融体系稳定的紧迫性。基于发达经济体和新兴经济体的国际比较视角,运用2008年金融危机以来国际清算银行的数据,从企业债务规模、增速、部门结构、币种结构多个维度全面分析后危机时代新兴经济体非金融企业杠杆率发展现状、债务过快增长的成因及其对经济增长和金融稳定的影响。研究发现,杠杆率上升既受发达国家量化宽松货币政策、国际金融监管政策强化、经济增速周期性下降、国内资本市场发展不成熟等宏观因素的影响,又是银行信贷资金的所有制偏好、企业投资回报率偏低、中小企业融资约束效应等微观因素作用的结果。企业杠杆率过快上升不仅影响了新兴经济体金融体系稳定,抑制投资和经济增长,而且还使企业面临流动性、偿付能力、债务展期等风险。为应对中国式企业高杠杆、防范或化解系统性金融风险,建议深化投资管理体制改革、完善多层次资本市场体系、加快推进国有企业市场化改革、完善企业资产重组和破产清算程序。Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,the rapid rise in the leverage ratio of non-financial corporations in emerging economies has aroused widespread concerns around the world.Successive defaults by real estate giants such as Evergrande in the debt market highlight the urgency of reducing corporate debt risks and maintaining the stability of the financial system.Based on the perspective of international comparison between developed countries and emerging economies,and the data of the Bank for International Settlements since the 2008 financial crisis,the author comprehensively analyzes the development status of non-financial corporate leverage ratio in emerging economies in the post-crisis era,the causes of sharp jump in the leverage ratio,and the impact on economic growth and financial stability from the dimensions of corporate debt scale,growth rate,and sector structure.It is found that:the rise in leverage ratio is not only influenced by macroeconomic factors such as quantitative easing monetary policy in developed countries,stricter supervision of international financial system,cyclical decline in economic growth and the inadequate development of capital market,but also the result of microeconomic factors such as ownership preference of bank credit funds,low rate of returns on corporate investment and financing constraint effects of small and medium-sized enterprises.The excessive increase in the leverage ratio of non-financial corporations not only affects the stability of the financial system in emerging economies,but also restrains investment and economic growth.At the same time,it also causes corporations to take risks in terms of liquidity,solvency and debt rollover.To cope with the high leverage of China's non-financial corporations and reduce systemic risks,the author puts forward concrete policy suggestions,including deepening the reform of investment management system,improving the development of multi-level capital market system,accelerating market-oriented reform of state-owned enterpri

关 键 词：杠杆率 非金融企业 结构性去杠杆 国际金融危机 新兴经济体 

分 类 号：F275.1[经济管理—企业管理]