鲐鱼的资源评估探讨及其不确定性分析  

Uncertainties of Parameters Associated with Stock Assessment for Chub Mackerel Pneumatophorus japonicus Based on JABBA

作　　者：田志盼 麻秋云 张云飞[2] 田思泉[1,3,4] TIAN Zhipan;MA Qiuyun;ZHANG Yunfei;TIAN Siquan(College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Natural History Research Center,Shanghai Science&Technology Museum,Shanghai 200041,China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋科学学院,上海201306 [2]上海科技馆自然史研究中心,上海200041 [3]国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海201306 [4]大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室,上海201306

出　　处：《水产科学》2022年第6期915-926,共12页Fisheries Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFD0901404).

摘　　要：鲐鱼是中国近海重要的中上层经济鱼种,为准确理解当前资源状态和实现可持续利用,需要对其进行科学的渔业资源评估。文章利用中国渔业统计年鉴1979至2019年的渔获量和捕捞努力量数据,利用贝叶斯状态空间产量模型对鲐鱼进行评估,并通过敏感性分析探讨输入数据、模型参数等不确定性因素的影响。结果表明,当前最大可持续产量为46.5万t,资源有83%的概率处于健康状态,种群未遭受资源型和捕捞型过度捕捞(当前相对生物量水平B_(2019)/B_(MSY)=1.160,当前相对捕捞死亡系数F_(2019)/F_(MSY)=0.773)。敏感性分析中,种群参数内禀增长率和初始资源消耗率的先验分布基本不影响评估结果,而可捕系数恒定年增长对评估结果影响较大;数据方面,一定的渔获量误报率不影响对鲐鱼资源状态的判断,而捕捞努力量数据选择时应纳入海洋捕捞从业人数数据,以得到较合理结果。在中国近海鲐鱼的养护管理过程中,为提高资源评估结果的准确性并降低不确定性,需要着重关注渔获量数据的质量和捕捞努力量数据的选择。To better understand the current stock status and to keep sustainable development of fishery,it is essential to conduct scientific fishery stock assessment for chub mackerel Pneumatophorus japonicus.Based on the catch and effort data of the China Fishery Statistical Yearbook from 1979 to 2019,we conducted the stock assessment for chub mackerel and explored the effects of uncertainties of input data and model parameters via sensitivity analysis in Bayesian state-space production model(Just Another Bayesian Biomass Model,JABBA).The results showed that the maximum sustainable yield is 4650000 t,current stock has an 83%probability being in a healthy status,and neither overfishing nor overfished is happening(B_(2019)/B_(MSY)=1.160,F_(2019)/F_(MSY)=0.773).Results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the prior distribution of the intrinsic growth rate and the initial depletion level basically do not affect stock assessment results.When the catchability coefficient maintains a constant annual increase,stock status estimate could worsen,changing from healthy to overfishing.The mis-report of catch does not affect stock status estimate,and including the number of fishermen in effort data could obtain more reasonable stock assessment results.In the process of conservation and management for chub mackerel in the coastal waters of China,it is essential to focus on the quality of catch data and the selection of effort data to improve the accuracy of stock assessment results and to reduce uncertainty.

关 键 词：渔业资源评估 不确定性 敏感性分析 鲐鱼 中国近海 

分 类 号：S931.1[农业科学—渔业资源]