一种分布式发电功率时间序列波动性量化评估方法  

A Fluctuation Quantitative Evaluation Method for Distributed Energy Power Time Series

作　　者：陈晨 袁绍军[1] 尹兆磊 贺晓红[1] 杨慢慢[1] 李润鑫[1] CHEN Chen;YUAN Shaojun;YIN Zhaolei;HE Xiaohong;YANG Manman;LI Runxin(State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company Limited,Chengde 067000,China;School of Energy Power Mechanical Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071066,China)

机构地区：[1]国网冀北电力有限公司承德供电公司,承德067000 [2]华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院,保定071066

出　　处：《电子与信息学报》2022年第11期3825-3832,共8页Journal of Electronics & Information Technology

摘　　要：未来智能电网将接纳越来越多的分布式能源,而分布式能源的广泛接入具有提高系统的能源效率、经济性、韧性以及可持续性的潜力。然而,以风力发电和光伏发电为主的分布式能源由于其固有的波动特性,在大规模接入电网时会给系统带来诸多问题。因此,定量刻画分布式发电功率的波动性对于现代电力系统而言至关重要。基于此,该文借助时间窗、包络线和勒贝格积分,通过提取分布式发电功率中高频信息和变化趋势的波动性特征,定义了量化分布式发电功率波动性的指标——波动率。通过检验风电功率时间序列的波动性、验证平滑效应以及与预测误差和已有指标进行对比分析,验证了所提出的波动率在衡量分布式发电功率波动性的有效性。Future smart grid will incorporate an increasing number of Distributed Energy Resources(DERs),which have the potential to enhance the system energy efficiency,economics,resilience,and sustainability.However,The DERs,dominated by wind power and photovoltaic power generation,would lead to many problems for a power system with large-scale DERs integrated due to their inherent fluctuation characteristic.Therefore,quantitatively evaluating the fluctuation level of the DERs’power is of great importance for modern power system.To this end,by defining time window,using envelope and Lebesgue integration theory,the fluctuation quantitative index of DERs’power—fluctuation rate—is defined by extracting the fluctuations of high frequency information and trends of the DER’s output power time series.The validity of the fluctuation rate for measuring the fluctuation of DERs’power is validated by testing the fluctuation,smoothing effects of wind power and conducting comparative analysis with prediction error and existing fluctuation index.

关 键 词：分布式发电 时间序列 波动性 包络线 勒贝格积分 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]