基于王石灌区水资源供需时序关系研究  

Study on Temporal Relationship of Water Resources Supply and Demand in Wangshi Irrigation Area

作　　者：张亮 ZHANG Liang(Liaoning Provincial Suizhong County Water Conservancy Affairs Service Center,Suizhong 125205,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省绥中县水利事务服务中心,辽宁绥中125205

出　　处：《黑龙江水利科技》2022年第10期17-21,共5页Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology

摘　　要：文章以葫芦岛市绥中县王石灌区为例,采用非线性协整理论探讨灌区降雨量、作物需水量与灌溉水量之间的关系,通过与BP网络预测结果的对比验证了该方法的可行性。研究表明:灌区降水量、作物需水量与灌溉水量之间存在非线性协整关系,多时间尺度非线性协整模型的精度最高,研究成果可以为灌区灌溉水量的精准预测提供一种新的方法。Taking Wangshi irrigated district of Suizhong County, Huludao City as an example, nonlinear cointegration theory was used to discuss the relationship between rainfall, crop water demand and irrigation water in irrigated district, and the feasibility of the method was verified by comparing with BP network prediction results. The results show that there is a nonlinear cointegration relationship among precipitation, crop water demand and irrigation water in irrigated areas, and the multi-time scale nonlinear cointegration model has the highest accuracy. The research results can provide a new method for accurate prediction of irrigation water in irrigated areas.

关 键 词：水资源 供需时序 非线性协整 王石灌区 

分 类 号：TV214[水利工程—水文学及水资源]