多约束条件下城市能源规划前期研究方法及案例分析  

Methods and Case Study for Preliminary Research of Urban Energy Planning Under Multiple Constraints

作　　者：霍沫霖 陈爱康 刘智超 郭磊 HUO Molin;CHEN Aikang;LIU Zhichao;GUO Lei(China Three Gorges Group Strategy and Development Research Center,Haidian District,Beijing 100038,China;State Grid(Suzhou)City&Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Suzhou 215163,Jiangsu Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,Hubei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡集团战略与发展研究中心,北京市海淀区100038 [2]国网(苏州)城市能源研究院有限责任公司,江苏省苏州市215163 [3]强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室(华中科技大学),湖北省武汉市430074

出　　处：《全球能源互联网》2022年第6期574-582,共9页Journal of Global Energy Interconnection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会-国家电网公司智能电网联合基金(U1766212)。

摘　　要：城市能源规划是引导城市能源供给侧和消费侧转型的顶层设计文件。结合城市能源规划研究和编制的实际复杂情况,自主设计了一套可复制、可推广的城市能源规划前期研究方法体系,为城市能源规划工作提供实用指导与参考。梳理了规划前期研究的4个阶段,提出能源供需形势情景量化分析的“6步骤”,提出基于约束条件分析、趋势预测分析和专家研判分析的转型潜力“3Y”分析法。最后基于S市的能源发展历史成效与未来形势,使用提出的方法学量化研判S市的能源供需形势,基于情景比较结果提出能源变革发展目标、重点任务和保障措施等建议。Urban energy planning is a design document that guides the transition of urban energy supply and consumption.Based on the actual situation in China,this paper proposes a set of reproducible and popularized steps and methods for the preliminary research of urban energy planning,which provides practical guidance and reference for urban energy planning.This paper analyzes four aspects of the preliminary research of the planning,and innovatively proposes the“6-step”procedure for scenario analysis of the energy supply and demand.Then the“3Y”method,based on the constraint analysis,trend prediction,and expert judgment analysis,is proposed for comprehensive potential analysis.Finally,based on the energy status,the situation,and the challenge of S City,the proposed steps and methods are used to analyze the energy supply and demand situation of S City.Then put forward the development suggestions such as energy reform and development goals,key tasks,and safeguard measures.

关 键 词：城市能源规划 能源需求预测 情景分析 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]