“双循环”背景下城市房价如何影响经济增长——基于链式多重中介效应的分析  

How Does Urban Housing Price Affect Economic Growth in the Context of “Dual Circulation”:An Analysis Based on Chain Multiple Mediation Model

作　　者：孔丹凤[1] 王永冲 KONG Danfeng;WANG Yongchong

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,山东济南250100 [2]山东省宏观经济研究院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《济南大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第6期89-101,175,共14页Journal of University of Jinan:Social Science Edition

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究重点项目“增值税减税、财政货币政策协调与中小微企业发展”(项目编号:21BJJJ04)之阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在“加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”的背景下,我国需进一步理清房地产对投资和消费的综合影响。基于2005—2018年286个城市数据,通过构建链式多重中介效应模型和门槛效应模型,实证研究了房价对经济增长的影响效应和作用机理。研究发现:房价上涨通过投资和消费两个渠道对经济增长产生独立中介效应和链式中介效应,其中独立中介效应分别占总效应的36.12%和26.91%,链式中介效应占13.96%;区域差异较为明显,相比东部地区和西部地区,中部地区正向效应更大;房价对经济增长存在双门槛效应,房价处高位区间对经济增长作用效应趋于负向;房价对于固定资产投资具有显著积极影响,但当房地产投资与固定资产投资比值提高至一定水平,房价上涨转而抑制固定资产投资;房价处于低水平时对于消费有显著积极影响,但随着房价收入比提高,房价对消费的抑制作用越来越强。In the context of“speeding up the construction of a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the main body and the domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other”,China needs to further clarify the comprehensive influence of real estate on investment and consumption.Based on the data of 286 cities from 2005 to 2018,this article empirically studies the effect and mechanism of housing price fluctuation on economic growth by constructing the chain multiple mediation model and the threshold model.It is found that the rise of housing price has independent and chain mediation effects on economic growth through the two channels of investment and consumption,among which their independent mediation effects account for 36.12%and 26.91%of the total effects respectively while their chain mediation effects account for 13.96%.Regional differences are significant.The positive effect in the central region is greater.There is a double threshold effect on the economic growth of housing prices.The effect of high housing prices on economic growth tends to be negative.Housing price has a significantly positive impact on fixed asset investment.However,when the ratio of real estate investment to fixed asset investment rises to a certain level,the rise of housing price turns to inhibit fixed asset investment.Low housing prices have a significantly positive impact on consumption.However,with the rise of housing price-to-income ratio,the inhibition of housing prices on consumption becomes increasingly strong.

关 键 词：住房价格 经济增长 门槛效应 链式多重中介模型 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F293.3