1972—2016年江苏省启东市胰腺癌生存率长期趋势分析  

Long-term trend analysis of survival rate for pancreas cancer in Qidong County,Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2016

作　　者：陈永胜 王军[1] 张永辉[1] 樊春笋 丁璐璐 徐源佑 陈建国[1] 朱健[1] Chen Yongsheng;Wang Jun;Zhang Yonghui;Fan Chunsun;Ding Lulu;Xu Yuanyou;Chen Jianguo;Zhu Jian(Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Qidong People's Hospital,Qidong Liver Cancer Institute,Qidong 226200,China)

机构地区：[1]南通大学附属启东医院,启东市人民医院,启东肝癌防治研究所,启东226200

出　　处：《中华胰腺病杂志》2022年第5期353-358,共6页Chinese Journal of Pancreatology

基　　金：2022年南通市基础科学研究和社会民生科技计划项目(JCZ2022050)

摘　　要：目的分析1972—2016年江苏省启东市人群胰腺癌生存率变化趋势,为胰腺癌患者预后评价及防治提供依据。方法选取1972年1月至2016年12月间启东市肿瘤登记处4341例胰腺癌的登记资料,随访截止于2021年12月31日。采用SURV(3.01)软件计算1、3、5年观察生存率(OSR)和相对生存率(RSR),采用Hakulinen似然比检验法进行统计检验。采用国际癌症生存标准年龄结构计算年龄标化相对生存率(ARSR),采用Joinpoint(4.7.0.0)软件分析生存率年度变化百分比(APC)。结果胰腺癌1、3、5年OSR分别为13.82%、5.87%、4.70%,RSR分别为14.50%、6.80%、6.02%,1、3、5年RSR从1972—1976年的11.76%、4.84%、3.29%升至2012—2016年的18.80%、7.39%、6.49%,上升趋势有统计学意义(χ^(2)=59.84,P<0.001)。其中男性1、3、5年RSR分别为14.31%、6.40%、5.82%,女性为14.74%、7.28%、6.26%,男女RSR差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=6.68,P=0.463)。45~54岁组、55~64岁组、65~74岁组和≥75岁组的5年RSR分别为8.14%、6.74%、4.69%、5.24%,生存率趋势随年龄的增长而下降,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=19.52,P=0.012)。胰腺癌1、3、5年ARSR分别为14.67%、6.84%、6.04%,其中男性分别为14.36%、6.42%、5.79%,女性分别为15.25%、7.55%、6.47%。时间趋势分析结果显示,1972—2016年1年ARSR的APC为0.91%(t=1.94,P=0.094),3年ARSR的APC为-0.22%(t=-0.30,P=0.774),5年ARSR的APC为-0.77%(t=-0.95,P=0.374),其中男性5年ARSR的APC为-1.50%(t=-1.31,P=0.232),女性5年ARSR的APC为1.11%(t=0.37,P=0.722),9个时期(以5年为1个时期)男性、女性ARSR的上升或下降趋势均无统计学意义。45~54岁、55~64岁、65~74岁及≥75岁年龄组5年RSR的APC分别为2.46%(t=0.57,P=0.588)、3.16%(t=0.87,P=0.413)、0.95%(t=0.26,P=0.805)及-2.56%(t=-2.61,P=0.035),除≥75岁年龄组的下降趋势有统计学意义外,其余年龄组的上升趋势均无统计学意义。结论启东市1972—2016年间的胰腺癌总体生存率一直处于较低的水平,需要引进规范�Objective To analyze the survival of pancreatic cancer cases in Qidong County,Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2016,and provide a basis for the prognosis evaluation and prevention of pancreatic cancer.Methods Data from a total of 4341 registered pancreatic cancer patients in Tumor Registry of Qidong from January 1972 to December 2016 were selected,and all the patients were followed up until December 31,2021.1-,3-and 5-year observed survival rate(OSR)and relative survival rate(RSR)were calculated and tested by Hakulinen likelihood ratio test method using SURV(3.01)software.Age-standardized relative survival rate(ARSR)was calculated according to the International Cancer Survival Standard(ICSS).Joinpoint(4.7.0.0)software was used to conduct the annual percentage change(APC)of pancreas cancer survival rate.Results 1-,3-and 5-year OSR of pancreatic cancer were 13.82%,5.87%and 4.70%,and 1-,3-and 5-year RSR were 14.50%,6.80%and 6.02%,respectively.1-,3-and 5-year RSR increased from 11.76%,4.84%and 3.29%in 1972—1976 to 18.80%,7.39%and 6.49%in 2012—2016.The uptrends of RSR were statistically significant(χ^(2)=59.84,P<0.001).1-,3-and 5-year RSR for male were 14.31%,6.40%and 5.82%,and 1-,3-and 5-year RSR for female were 14.74%,7.28%and 6.26%,respectively.There was no statistically significant difference on RSR between male and female(χ^(2)=6.68,P=0.463).The 5-year RSR for the age group of 45-54,55-64,65-74,and≥75 years old were 8.14%,6.74%,4.69%and 5.24%,respectively,and the survival rate was decreased with age.There was a statistically significant difference on RSR among different age groups(χ^(2)=19.52,P=0.012).1-,3-and 5-year ARSR of pancreas cancer were 14.67%,6.84%and 6.04%.For male,1-,3-and 5-year ARSR were 14.36%,6.42%and 5.79%,and for female were 15.25%,7.55%and 6.47%,respectively.Period trend analysis showed that the APC of 1-,3-and 5-year ARSR was 0.91%(t=1.94,P=0.094),-0.22%(t=-0.30,P=0.774)and-0.77%(t=-0.95,P=0.374)from 1972 to 2016 in Qidong.The APC of 5-year ARSR in male and female were-1.50%(t=-1.31,P=0.

关 键 词：胰腺肿瘤 生存率 趋势分析 启东 

分 类 号：R735.9[医药卫生—肿瘤]