城市火灾次数与气象因素的回归分析  

Regression Analysis of the Number of Urban Fires and Meteorological Factors

作　　者：陈聪[1] 徐菀鋆 Chen Cong;Xu Wanjun(Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学,福建福州350002

出　　处：《科学技术创新》2022年第35期17-20,共4页Scientific and Technological Innovation

基　　金：福建省教育厅中青年教师教育科研项目:城市火灾风险预测的研究(JT180125)。

摘　　要：基于福州市2017-2019年的月度火灾数据,分别运用最小二乘回归和分位数回归,对月平均风速、月平均气温、月平均降水量、月平均相对湿度等气象因素与月度火灾发生次数的相关性进行了研究。结果表明,气象因素中气温、降水量、相对湿度对火灾次数影响较显著,而风速对火灾次数的影响不大。Based on the monthly fire data ofFuzhou from 2017 to2019,the least squares regression model and quantile regression model are respectively established to study the relation between the monthly number of fires and meteorological factors,such as the monthly average temperature,monthly average precipitation,monthly average relative humidity,and monthly average wind speed.The results show that the first three meteorological factors have significant effects on the number of fires,while the last one has little effect.

关 键 词：火灾次数 气象因素 分位数回归 

分 类 号：X928.7[环境科学与工程—安全科学]