基于改进灰色预测模型的供应链韧性评价与预警研究  被引量:26

Research on Evaluation and Early Warning of Supply Chain Resilience Based on Improved Gray Forecasting Model

在线阅读下载全文

作  者:綦方中[1] 张磊磊 Qi Fangzhong;Zhang Leilei(School of Management,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China)

机构地区:[1]浙江工业大学管理学院,杭州310023

出  处:《工业技术经济》2022年第12期100-107,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基  金:国家社会科学基金项目“创建大数据下我国农产品可追溯质量安全模式与运行机制研究”(项目编号:18BJY148)。

摘  要:在不确定环境下,更高的供应链韧性可以有效降低中断风险,帮助企业实现高质量经营。本文从供应链的视角构建一种面向制造企业的韧性评价指标体系,并使用改进TOPSIS方法量化韧性的水平。考虑现实环境中韧性指标易受到非常规因素的影响,引入WAWBO弱化缓冲算子及新陈代谢思想来改进灰色预测方法,从而实现韧性指标的动态预测。同时,结合韧性量化方法,构建了一种供应链韧性预警模型。以国内一家电子制造企业2020~2022年的数据进行实证研究,结果表明TOPSIS韧性量化方法的有效性,所提出的改进灰色预测方法也具有更高的预测精度,平均预测误差为2.91%。研究为相关企业提高供应链韧性预警能力、实现供应链的可持续发展提供新思路。In an uncertain environment,higher supply chain resilience can effectively reduce the risk of interruption and help enterprises achieve high-quality management. A resilience evaluation index system for manufacturing enterprises is constructed from the perspective of supply chain,and the improved TOPSIS method is used to quantify the level of resilience. Considering that the resilience index in the real environment is easily affected by unconventional factors,the WAWBO weakening buffer operator and metabolism idea are introduced to improve the gray forecasting method,so as to realize the dynamic forecasting of resilience index.At the same time,combined with the quantitative method of resilience,a supply chain resilience early warning model is constructed. An empirical study is carried out based on the data of an electronic manufacturing enterprise from 2020 to 2022. The results show that the quantitative method of TOPSIS resilience is effective,and the improved gray forecasting method also has higher accuracy,with an average error of 2. 91%. The research also provides new ideas for related enterprises to improve the early warning ability of supply chain resilience and realize the sustainable development of supply chain to ensure high-quality management of enterprises.

关 键 词:供应链 韧性评价 灰色预测 韧性预警 动态预测 制造企业 

分 类 号:F274[经济管理—企业管理] F224[经济管理—国民经济]

 

参考文献:

正在载入数据...

 

二级参考文献:

正在载入数据...

 

耦合文献:

正在载入数据...

 

引证文献:

正在载入数据...

 

二级引证文献:

正在载入数据...

 

同被引文献:

正在载入数据...

 

相关期刊文献:

正在载入数据...

相关的主题
相关的作者对象
相关的机构对象