自主船舶避碰过程中人为失误的分析与评估  

Analysis and evaluation of human errors in collision avoidance process of maritime autonomous surface ships

作　　者：周颖[1] 刘正江[1] 王新建[1] 谢辉 ZHOU Ying;LIU Zheng-jiang;WANG Xin-jian;XIE Hui(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Ship Inspection Department,China MSA,Beijing 100005,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]交通运输部海事局船检处,北京100005

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》2022年第3期12-19,共8页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(52101399);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3132022129)。

摘　　要：针对海上自主水面船舶(MASS)发展过程中可能出现的人为失误问题,从风险识别和风险评估的角度提出L2级MASS避碰过程中人为失误风险识别方法和评估模型。首先,基于层次任务分析法(HTA)获得MASS避碰过程中远程操作人员和在船船员的关键任务,利用问题解决和决策制定模型(IDAC)建立认知模型,分解避碰任务的各个操作阶段,识别避碰过程中可能存在的人为失误;其次,采用故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法和证据推理(ER)对识别出的风险因素进行风险等级量化建模;最后,对MASS避碰过程中的人为失误进行风险量化和排序,并与现有研究成果进行对比分析,提出建议措施。研究结果表明,决策阶段的人机系统交互不协调是L2级MASS避碰过程中最大的风险因素。In view of the possible human errors in the development process of maritime autonomous surface ship(MASS), the identification method and evaluation model of human error risk in L2 level MASS collision avoidance process were proposed from the perspective of risk identification and risk assessment. Firstly, the critical tasks of the remote operators and crews on the ship in the MASS collision avoidance process were obtained based on the hierarchical task analysis method(HTA), and the problem solving and decision making model(IDAC) was used to establish the cognitive model to decompose each operation stage of collision avoidance task and identify the possible human errors in the collision avoidance process. Secondly, the failure mode and impact analysis(FMEA) method were used to model the risk level of the identified risk factors by combining evidence reasoning(ER). Finally, the risk of human error in MASS collision avoidance process was quantified and ranked, compared with the existing research results, and necessary suggestions were put forward. The results show that the biggest risk factor is the uncoordinated human-machine system interaction in the decision-making stage during L2 level MASS collision avoidance process.

关 键 词：海事安全 自主船舶 碰撞风险 风险分析 人为失误 证据推理 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]