方差分析周期外推法在入库径流量预测中的应用  

Application of ANOVA Period Extrapolation Method in Forecastof Input Runoff

作　　者：邓丽仙[1] 杨帆[2] 赵兰兰 DENG Li-xian;YANG Fan;ZHAO Lan-lan(Yunnan Hydrological and Water Resources Bureau,Kunming Branch,Kunming 650106,China;Yunnan Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Kunming 650106,China;Water Resources Ministry Information Center(Water Resources Ministry Hydrology and Water Resources Monitoring and Forecasting Center),Beijing 100053,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水文水资源局昆明分局,云南昆明650106 [2]云南省水文水资源局,云南昆明650106 [3]水利部信息中心(水利部水文水资源监测预报中心),北京100053

出　　处：《云南水力发电》2022年第11期157-160,共4页Yunnan Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52179011)。

摘　　要：利用松华坝水库1955—2021年(67a)的入库径流资料系列,通过时间序列周期方差分析外推法计算了该水库的入库径流量的水文周期,得到松华坝水库入库径流量的水文周期是10a;根据这一周期长度,用实际入库径流资料与预报模拟计算结果进行检验,利用模型对水库入库径流量进行预测。从预测结果看,2022—2025年水库将出现入库径流量大量减少时段,水库的蓄水、供水矛盾将更为突出。Based on the data series of inflow runoff of Songhuaba Reservoir from 1955 to 2021(67 years),the hydrological period of inflow runoff of the reservoir is calculated by extrapolation method of time series periodic variance analysis.The calculation results indicate that the hydrological period of the runoff into the reservoir of Songhuaba Reservoir is 10 years.According to the period length,the actual inflow runoff data and the predicted simulation calculation results are checked,and the inflow runoff of the reservoir is predicted by the model.From the forecasting results,it can be seen that the runoff into reservoir will decrease greatly from 2022 to 2025,and the contradiction between water storage and water supply will be more obvious.

关 键 词：预测 入库径流量 方差分析 外推法 松华坝水库 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]