基于蒙特卡洛法的机械制造企业安全绩效评估研究  

Research on safety performance evaluation for machinery manufacturing enterprises based on Monte Carlo method

作　　者：杨鑫刚[1] 王起全 陈文涛 柴萧萧 YANG Xingang;WANG Qiquan;CHEN Wentao;CHAI Xiaoxiao(School of Labor Education,China University of Labor Relations,Beijing 100048,China;School of Safety Engineering,China University of Labor Relations,Beijing 100048,China;China Occupational Safety and Health Association,Beijing 100011,China)

机构地区：[1]中国劳动关系学院劳动教育学院,北京100048 [2]中国劳动关系学院安全工程学院,北京100048 [3]中国职业安全健康协会,北京100011

出　　处：《西安科技大学学报》2022年第6期1189-1197,共9页Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0804900);教育部第二批新工科研究与实践项目(EXTYR20200607)。

摘　　要：针对企业安全绩效评估随着生产规模、设备及技术的不断发展而表现出来的复杂性,探索一种高效、方便、准确的评估方法意义重大。在充分把握企业安全绩效和个人安全绩效的区别的基础之上,认真分析国际安全评级系统,综合考虑国内外不同行业安全绩效指标的共同因素,将企业安全绩效划分为安全文化、安全管理和安全结果3个维度。建立了一套评估指标体系,并利用蒙特卡洛法进行应用研究。采用理论计算、公式推导、现场调研、随机抽样模拟等手段,充分发挥蒙特卡洛法基于大量试验的结果直接对事物进行结果验证的优势,得到每个指标的估计值,继而有效客观地对企业的安全绩效做出评估。研究表明:利用蒙特卡洛法进行企业安全绩效评估,计算速度快,精度高,5000次实验模拟的结果与1000000次实验模拟相比误差仅为0.06;蒙特卡洛法客观有效,运用方便,不仅可以很好进行安全绩效评估,而且可以找到企业安全绩效的薄弱环节,从而提高安全管理水平。In view of the complexity of enterprise safety performance evaluation with the continuous development of production scale,equipment and technology,it is of great significance to explore an efficient,convenient and accurate evaluation method.On the basis of fully grasping the differences between enterprise safety performance and personal safety performance,this paper analyzes the international safety rating system in details,takes the common factors of safety performance indicators in different industries at home and abroad into an overall consideration,and divides enterprise safety performance into three dimensions:safety culture,safety management and safety results.A set of evaluation index system has been established and put into practice by Monte Carlo method.By means of theoretical calculation,formula derivation,field investigation and random sampling simulation,this paper gives full play to the advantages of Monte Carlo method in verifying the results of things directly based on a large number of test results,with the estimated value of each index obtained,so as to evaluate the safety performance of the enterprise effectively and objectively.The results show that the Monte Carlo method has high calculation speed and high accuracy.The error of 5000 experimental simulations is only 0.06 compared with that of 1000000 experimental simulations.Monte Carlo method is objectively,effective and easy to use.It can not only carry out safety performance evaluation,but also find out the weak links of enterprise safety performance,so as to improve the level of safety management.

关 键 词：企业安全绩效 蒙特卡洛法 指标体系 概率分布 随机抽样 

分 类 号：X93[环境科学与工程—安全科学]