涉事车辆分类的高速公路重特大交通事故成因与严重程度研究  

Study on causes and severity of serious traffic accidents on freeway based on classification of involved vehicles

作　　者：戴学臻[1] 胡传喜 陈茜 胡格源 何建平 DAI Xue-zhen;HU Chuan-xi;CHEN Xi;HU Ge-yuan;HE Jian-ping(School of Transportation Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学运输工程学院,西安710064

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第5期2583-2591,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BGL239);高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(B20035)。

摘　　要：为研究不同涉事车辆数分类下的事故特征,以事故涉及车辆数为分类依据,将高速公路重特大交通事故分为单车和多车事故两类。首先,以事故车型分布为研究对象,在分析单多车事故车型分布规律的基础上,利用Pearson相关系数研究了多车事故中车辆类型的相关性特征;其次,利用社会网络分析(SNA)计算单多车事故影响因素的节点中心性,提出以决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法求解的可达矩阵作为SNA的输入矩阵,然后从整体属性(凝聚子群)的角度分析单多车事故影响因素的凝聚性;最后,从事故的伤亡人数和持续时间分析单多车事故严重程度的变化规律。以陕西省2018—2019年168起高速公路重特大交通事故为例进行分析,结果表明:多车事故中同类型车型之间存在较强的正相关性,而不同类型车辆之间多为负相关;单多车事故的节点中心性存在明显不同,在事故致因方面存在较大差异;单车事故和多车事故分别得到5个凝聚子群,各凝聚子群均代表事故影响因素的凝聚特征;多车事故的受伤人数较高,单车事故的死亡人数较高;单车事故的持续时间集中在3 h内,多车事故的持续时间集中在4 h内和6 h以上;单多车事故在车型、影响因素和严重程度等方面均存在明显的差异性。To study the characteristics of accidents under different classifications of the number of involved vehicles,the study divided freeway accidents into two types:single-vehicle accidents and multi-vehicle accidents.Firstly,based on the analysis of the distribution of vehicle types in single-vehicle and multi-vehicle accidents,a correlation coefficient of Pearson was used to study the correlation characteristics of vehicle types in multi-vehicle accidents;Secondly,Social Network Analysis(SNA)was used to calculate the node centrality of the influencing factors of single-vehicle and multi-vehicle accidents;The reachable matrix solved by the Decision Experimentation and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method was proposed as the input matrix of SNA,then the single-vehicle and multi-vehicle accidents of the influencing factor was analyzed from the perspective of overall attributes(cohesive subgroup);Finally,the law of the severity of single-vehicle and multi-vehicle accidents was analyzed from the number of casualties and the duration of the accident.Taking 168 serious traffic accidents on expressways in Shaanxi Province from 2018 to 2019 as an example,the results show that:(1)there is a strong positive correlation between the same type of vehicles in multi-vehicle accidents,while there is a negative correlation between different types of vehicles;(2)The node centrality of single-vehicle and multi-vehicle accidents is obviously different,and there are great differences in the cause of accidents.Five agglomerative subgroups are obtained for single-vehicle accidents and multi-vehicle accidents respectively,and each agglomerative subgroup represents the agglomerative characteristics of accident influencing factors;(3)The number of injured people in multi-vehicle accidents is more than that of single-vehicle accidents;The number of deaths in single-vehicle accidents is more than that of multi-vehicle accidents.The duration of single-vehicle accidents is concentrated in 3 hours,and that of multi-vehicle accidents is concentrate

关 键 词：安全工程 高速公路 重特大交通事故 单多车事故 Pearson相关系数 决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL) 社会网络分析 凝聚子群 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]