基于InVEST和GeoSoS-FLUS模型的黄河源区碳储量时空变化特征及其对未来不同情景模式的响应  

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Carbon Storage in the Source Region of the Yellow River Based on InVEST and GeoSoS-FLUS Models and Its Response to Different Future Scenarios

作　　者：侯建坤 陈建军 张凯琪 周国清 尤号田[1,2] 韩小文 HOU Jian-kun;CHEN Jian-jun;ZHANG Kai-qi;ZHOU Guo-qing;YOU Hao-tian;HAN Xiao-wen(College of Geomatics and Geoinformation,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541004,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics Guilin University of Technology,Guilin541004,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院,桂林541004 [2]桂林理工大学广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室,桂林541004

出　　处：《环境科学》2022年第11期5253-5262,共10页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41801030);广西科技计划项目(桂科AD19245032);广西自然科学基金项目(2018GXNSFBA281054);广西八桂学者专项;广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室项目(19-050-11-22)。

摘　　要：区域土地利用变化是导致生态系统碳储量变化的主要原因,预测未来土地利用变化对碳储量的影响对于碳储功能的可持续发展具有重要意义.近年来,在自然和人为因素的共同作用下,黄河源区土地利用变化显著,其碳储功能也相应发生改变.本研究结合InVEST和GeoSoS-FLUS模型,评估黄河源区2000~2020年以及不同情景下2020~2040年土地利用变化及其对碳储量的影响.结果表明:(1)2000~2020年黄河源区碳储量整体呈上升趋势,共增加11.59×10^(6)t.(2)20年间,黄河源区土地利用变化以低覆盖度草地、建设用地和湿地的面积增加和高覆盖度草地、中覆盖度草地和未利用地面积减少为主,未利用地大面积减少以及草地和湿地的面积增加是导致碳储量增加的主要原因.(3)2040年自然变化情景下黄河源区生态系统碳储量为871.34×10^(6)t,较2020年增加3.92×10^(6)t.生态保护情景下碳储量增幅明显,较2020年增加13.53×10^(6)t.该研究结果可以为黄河源区土地利用管理决策以及碳储功能的可持续发展提供科学参考.Regional land use change is the main cause of carbon storage changes in ecosystems.Predicting the impact of future land use changes on carbon storage is of great significance for the sustainable development of carbon storage functions.In recent years,under the combined action of natural and human factors,the land use in the source region of the Yellow River has changed significantly,and its carbon storage function has also changed accordingly.This study combined InVEST and GeoSoS-FLUS models to evaluate land use change and its impact on carbon storage in the source region of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2020 and from 2020 to 2040 under different scenarios.The results showed that:(1)from 2000 to 2020,the carbon storage in the source region of the Yellow River showed an overall upward trend,with a total increase of 11.59×10^(6)t.(2)Over the past 20 years,the land use changes in the source region of the Yellow River included mainly the increase in the area of low-coverage grassland,construction land,and wetland and the decrease in the area of high-coverage grassland,medium-coverage grassland,and unused land,as well as the large-scale reduction of unused land and the reduction of grassland.The increase in the area of wetlands was the main reason for the increase in carbon storage.(3)Under the natural change scenario in 2040,the ecosystem carbon storage in the source region of the Yellow River was 871.34×10^(6)t,an increase of 3.92×10^(6)t compared with that in 2020.Under the ecological protection scenario,carbon storage increased significantly,with an increase of 13.53×10^(6)t compared with that in 2020.The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the decision-making of land use management and the sustainable development of carbon storage function in the source region of the Yellow River.

关 键 词：生态系统碳储量 黄河源区 土地利用变化 InVEST模型 GeoSoS-FLUS模型 

分 类 号：X144[环境科学与工程—环境科学]