京津冀及周边地区“2+26”城市结构性调整政策的CO_(2)协同减排效益评估  

Carbon Dioxide Mitigation Co-effect Analysis of Structural Adjustment Measures in the“2+26”Cities in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region and Its Surroundings

作　　者：杨添棋 王洪昌[1] 张辰[1] 朱金伟[1] 崔宇韬[1] 谭玉玲[1] 束韫[1] YANG Tian-qi;WANG Hong-chang;ZHANG Chen;ZHU Jin-wei;CUI Yu-tao;TAN Yu-ling;SHU Yun(State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Bejing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学》2022年第11期5315-5325,共11页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0213000)。

摘　　要：《打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动计划》("三年行动计划")明确提出,产业结构调整、能源结构调整、交通结构调整和用地结构调整是大幅减少大气污染物和CO_(2)排放的重要抓手,这种协同效应非常明显,但在城市群层面还未被量化研究.为此,采用京津冀温室气体-空气污染物协同控制综合评估模型(GAINS-JJJ),构建了2017年京津冀及周边地区"2+26"城市群基础排放清单,定量分析了"三年行动计划"的实施带来的CO_(2)和主要大气污染物的排放变化情况.结果表明,与2017年相比,2020年政策情景下"2+26"城市的CO_(2)、一次PM_(2.5)、SO_(2)、NO_(x)和NH_(3)的减排量分别为29.1 Mt(相当于2017年排放量的2%)、203.8(21%)、281.8(27%)、485.5(17%)和34.3 kt(3%),排放量较大的城市或部门都实现了较为明显的减排.碳协同减排效益结果显示,产业结构调整的一系列重大举措(淘汰落后产能、工业锅炉升级改造和散乱污企业综合整治等)取得了良好的CO_(2)和大气污染物协同减排效应,而不同污染物中NO_(x)的碳协同减排效应最高.The Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense Battle states that structural adjustments of industrial,energy,transportation,and land use are important to significantly reduce CO_(2)and air pollutant emissions.This co-effect is evident but has not been quantified at the city-cluster level.This study developed an emission inventory for the"2+26"cities of the Jing-Jin-Ji region and its surroundings and quantitatively analyzed the impacts of measures in the Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense Battle on the emissions of CO_(2)and major air pollutants using Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies in the"2+26"cities model(GAINS-JJJ).The results showed that in the"2+26"cities,the emission reductions in CO_(2),primary PM_(2.5),SO_(2),NO_(x),and NH_(3) under policy scenario 2020 were 29.1 Mt(equivalent to 2%of the emissions in 2017),203.8(21%),281.8(27%),485.5(17%),and 34.3 kt(3%),respectively,relative to 2017.In terms of the cities or sectors,the higher the pollutant emissions,the higher the reduction achieved.The CO_(2)mitigation co-effect results showed that industrial adjustment measures,such as eliminating backward production capacity,upgrades on industrial boilers,and phasing out small and polluting factories,contributed the most to the co-effect of CO_(2)emission reduction,whereas NO_(x)presented the highest co-effects,with CO_(2)among the different air pollutants.

关 键 词：结构性调整政策 碳减排 协同效应 “2+26”城市 GAINS-JJJ模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]