基于AR模型的恩格尔系数分析与预测——以云南省农村居民家庭为例  

Engel Coefficient Analysis and Prediction Based on the AR Model:Takes Rural Resident Families in Yunnan Province as an Example

作　　者：虞颖 孟彦菊[1] YU Ying;MENG Yan-ju(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学统计与数学学院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《红河学院学报》2022年第6期51-53,共3页Journal of Honghe University

基　　金：国家社科基金项目:基于多区域投入产出模型的珠江流域城市群生态补偿研究(20BTJ001)。

摘　　要：恩格尔系数主要被用于衡量一个国家或地区居民的生活水平。近年来,经济快速发展,人们的收入增多,消费结构发生变化。伴随着这种变化,人们在饮食方面的消费占消费支出比例逐渐降低,恩格尔系数呈现出逐渐下降的趋势。文章以1978—2018年的云南省农村居民家庭恩格尔系数构建时间序列,利用AR模型对该序列建模,然后对该序列进行拟合、分析,并且预测未来三年云南省农村居民家庭的恩格尔系数。结果表明恩格尔系数呈现出逐渐下降的趋势,最后针对此现象提出一些建议。The Engel coefficient is mainly used to measure the living standard of residents of a country or region.In recent years,the economy has developed rapidly,people’s income increases,and the consumption structure has changed.With this change,people’s consumption of consumption expenditure gradually decreased,and the Engel coefficient showed a gradual decline.The article constructs the time series with the Engel coefficient of rural residents in Yunnan Province from 1978-2018,models the sequence using the AR model,then fitted,analyzed,and predicts the Engel coefficient of rural households in Yunnan Province in the next three years.The results show that the Engel coefficient shows a gradually decreasing trend,and finally make some suggestions for this phenomenon.

关 键 词：恩格尔系数 时间序列 AR模型 预测 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]