基于使命能力框架的国防项目组合结构优化方法  

Optimization method of defense projects portfolio structure based on a mission-capability framework

作　　者：林木 王维平[1] 王涛[1] 朱一凡[1] 王彦锋[1] 周鑫 LIN Mu;WANG Weiping;WANG Tao;ZHU Yifan;WANG Yanfeng;ZHOU Xin(College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defence Technology,Changsha 410073,China;PLA 92941,Huludao 125000,China)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学系统工程学院,长沙410073 [2]92941部队,葫芦岛125000

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2022年第10期2829-2839,共11页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

摘　　要：国防项目投资决策是从国防力量建设成效和经济效益综合平衡角度出发,对影响国防建设发展全局的投资规模、投资使用方向、基本建设布局以及重点建设项目等内容做出抉择的过程.本文从国防项目投资决策的结构因素角度出发,提出一种基于能力的投资组合优化的分析框架.该分析框架建立了“项目组合-能力-活动-使命”之间的关联映射关系,将项目组合优化问题转化为对能力、使命与成本之间的多目标优化问题.然后,在该分析框架的基础上,建立了考虑项目协同的多目标优化模型,提出了一种基于NSGA-II的能力组合优化和决策方法,为实现投资项目定性与定量决策提供方法参考.最后以模拟数据给出了算例,检验了该方法的可用性和有效性.Investment decision of national defense projects focuses on balancing the development of national defense forces and economic benefits,involving many essential elements,such as investment scale,investment fields,and underlying development prospects that affect the formation and development of national defense capabilities.This paper proposes a capability-based analytical framework for portfolio optimization based on the essential elements of investment decision-making in national defense projects.An optimization analysis framework with the hierarchical structure of project portfolio,capability,business,and mission is introduced,transforming the project portfolio optimization problem into a multi-objective optimization problem among capability,mission and cost.Then,guided by the analysis framework,a portfolio optimization decision-making method based on the NSGA-II algorithm is proposed.The optimization algorithm can be used as decision support for qualitative and quantitative decision-making of investment projects.Through case analysis,the applicability of this method is preliminarily proved.

关 键 词：投资组合 能力组合 能力使命栅格 项目组合 遗传算法 NSGA-Ⅱ 战略规划 多目标优化 

分 类 号：O22[理学—运筹学与控制论] N94[理学—数学]