基于威胁分析的高速铁路信号系统风险评估方法  

Risk Assessment Method of High-Speed Railway Signal Systems Based on Threat Analysis

作　　者：李洪赭 闫连山[1] 陈建译 李赛飞[1] 徐斯润 LI Hongzhe;YAN Lianshan;CHEN Jianyi;LI Saifei;XU Sirun(School of Information Science and Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;China Railway Guangzhou Group Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510088,China;Agile Photonics Technology Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 611730,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学信息科学与技术学院,四川成都611756 [2]中国铁路广州局集团有限公司,广东广州510088 [3]安捷光通科技成都有限公司,四川成都611730

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报》2022年第6期1334-1341,共8页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University

基　　金：中国铁路总公司重点课题(2017X007-C);四川省科技计划(2021YJ0372,2019ZDZX0007)。

摘　　要：高速铁路信号系统是实现列车安全运行的关键基础设施,一旦发生设备或系统功能性故障极易导致安全事故.为此,提出了一种功能安全视角下用于高速铁路信号系统风险评估的模糊综合评价方法.该方法在改进模糊综合评判和层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)的基础上,加强系统威胁场景分析,并建立各场景下风险因素耦合关系.首先,分析高速铁路信号系统中影响行车安全的5类44个威胁场景,以系统功能安全事故为分析准则层、威胁类别为因素层,构建递阶层次结构;然后,根据主观评价确定结构中各要素权重,结合评语集对风险进行综合评估,并根据各场景风险值变化动态调整各层级和因素的权重,使评估结果更为真实,且能在安全风险和信号业务间建立映射关系.最后,通过评估某客专真实安全数据,得到信号系统风险等级较低的结果,与其他方法测评结果基本一致,验证了该方法的有效性.High-speed railway signal system is a key infrastructure to ensure the safety operation of trains.Once the equipment or system functional failure happens,it could easily lead to safety accidents.To this end,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is proposed for risk assessment of the high-speed railway signal system from the perspective of functional safety.Based on the improvement of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process(AHP),this method strengthens the system in terms of threat scenario analysis,and establishes the coupling relationship of risk factors in respective scenarios.Firstly,forty-four threat scenarios of five categories are analyzed,which affects traffic safety in railway signal systems.A hierarchical structure is constructed with system functional safety accidents as the analysis criterion layer and threat classification as the factor layer.Then the weight of each element in the structure is determined according to the subjective evaluation,and a comprehensive risk assessment is performed with the expert system.In addition,the weights of each level and factor can be adjusted dynamically according to the change of risk value of each scenario,making the evaluation result more practical and forming a mapping relation between security risks and signal services.In the evaluation of real operation data of a certain passenger dedicated line,the signal system risk level is relatively low,and evaluation results are basically consistent with other method,which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：铁路信号系统 网络安全 风险评估 模糊综合评价 层次分析法 

分 类 号：U284[交通运输工程—交通信息工程及控制]