苏州市25起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情传播力分析  

Analysis on the transmissibility of 25 cluster outbreaks of new coronavirus pneumonia in Suzhou

作　　者：许倩 张媛媛 杭惠 谭亚运[1] 崔朋伟[1] 陈立凌[1] XU Qian;ZHANG Yuan-yuan;HANG Hui;TAN Ya-yun;CUI Peng-wei;CHEN Li-ling(Suzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Suzhou 215000,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州市疾病预防控制中心,江苏苏州215000

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2022年第5期524-525,550,共3页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：基于医疗健康大数据的传染病监测与预警关键技术研究(SS202073);传染病监测体系对新型冠状病毒疫情预警与防控效果评估研究(SYS2020001)。

摘　　要：目的 了解苏州市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)聚集性疫情的流行病学特征,探索其传播力。方法 收集2020年1—3月苏州市传播链明确的COVID-19聚集性疫情,收集聚集性疫情病例的基本信息,使用伽马分布拟合病例代际间隔时间(Tg),使用SEIR模型计算基本再生数(R_(0))。结果 25起聚集性疫情中,16起来源于湖北疫区,23起是家庭聚集性疫情,包含48例确诊病例,12例核酸阳性的无症状感染者。25起聚集性疫情病例代际间隔时间为2~18 d,平均(7.09±4.31)d;估算苏州市新冠肺炎感染的R_(0)为2.62(95%CI:2.22~3.06)。结论 COVID-19聚集性疫情主要在家庭内聚集传播,早期传播力和重症急性呼吸综合征(SARS)、中东呼吸综合征(MERS)相当,应采取严格的防控措施阻断其流行。Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of the cluster outbreaks of new coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19) in Suzhou;to explore its transmissibility. Methods The basic case information of COVID-19 cluster outbreaks with clear transmission chain in Suzhou from Jan to Mar 2020 were collected,the gamma distribution was used to fit the intergenerational interval(Tg) of cases, the SEIR model was used to calculate the basic regeneration number(R_(0)). Results Among the 25 cluster outbreaks, 16 were from the epidemic areas in Hubei province, and 23 were family cluster outbreaks, including 48 confirmed cases and 12 asymptomatic infections with positive nucleic acid test results.The Tg of 25 clustered cases was 2-18 d, with an average of(7.09 ± 4.31) d;The estimated R_(0) of COVID-19 infection in Suzhou was 2.62(95% CI: 2.22-3.06). Conclusion The COVID-19 cluster outbreaks mainly spreads in families, and its early transmission is equivalent to severe acute respiratory syndrome(SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome(MERS).Strict prevention and control measures should be taken to stop virus spreading.

关 键 词：代际间隔时间 基本再生数 新型冠状病毒肺炎 聚集性疫情 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]