基于Logistic模型对居民弹性出行影响因素建模研究  

Study on Modeling of Influencing Factors for Resident Flexible Travel Based on Logistic Model

作　　者：李真真 郭唐仪[1] 何流 LI Zhenzhen;GUO Tangyi;HE Liu

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学自动化学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《城市道桥与防洪》2022年第11期209-213,223,I0020,共7页Urban Roads Bridges & Flood Control

基　　金：国家重点研发计划政府间国际科技创新合作专项(2019YFE0123800);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(30920010010)。

摘　　要：居民弹性出行特征是城市快速发展进程下的产物。随着城市居民生活水平不断提高,弹性出行在所有出行中所占比例逐渐增加,因而对居民弹性出行的研究愈发重要。为研究居民弹性出行特征的影响因素,首先利用居民弹性出行行为调查的RP-SP融合数据,结合方差膨胀检验方法研究影响居民弹性出行特征各因素间的线性相关性,最后构建多元Logistic模型,分析居民弹性出行前获取出行时间信息、天气信息作出出行选择时影响因素的显著性程度。结果表明,在0.05的显著性水平下,影响因素中年龄、游客类型、主要交通出行工具等显著影响居民弹性出行选择;居民出行前获知交通信息,弹性出行的概率能有效降低9%,在一定程度上可以降低交通压力,缓解交通拥挤。The flexible travel characteristics of resident are the product of the rapid development of cities.With the continuous improvement of urban resident living levels,the proportion of flexible travel in all travels is gradually increasing.Therefore,the study on the flexible travel of resident is becoming more and more important.To study the influencing factors of flexible travel characteristics of resident,firstly by utilizing the flexible travel behavior of resident as RP-SP merging data for survey and combined with the variance expansion test method,the linear correlation among the factors affecting the flexible travel characteristics of resident is studied.Finally,a multivariate Logistic model is built to analyze the significance of influencing factors when the residents obtain the travel time information and weather information before the flexible travel to give the travel choice.The results show that at the significance level of 0.05,the influencing factors such as age,type of tourists and main traffic travel means significantly affect the flexible travel choice of residents.The residents get the traffic information before travel.The probability of flexible travel can be effectively reduced by 9%,which can reduce the traffic pressure and alleviate the traffic congestion to a certain extent.

关 键 词：弹性出行 RP-SP调查 方差膨胀检验 多元Logistic模型 出行影响因素 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]