基于灰色理论和多元回归分析方法的江苏交通技能人才需求预测  

Prediction of the Demand for Skilled Talents in Jiangsu Transport Industry Based on Gray Theory and Multiple Regression Analytical Method

作　　者：金晓雯[1] 陈静[2] 陆春其[3] JIN Xiao-wen;CHEN Jing;LU Chun-qi(School of Continuing Education,Nanjing Vocational Institute of Transport Technology,Nanjing 211188,China;Jiangsu Transport Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Engineering Technology Research Center,Nanjing Vocational Institute of Transport Technology,Nanjing 211188,China;President Office,Nanjing Vocational Institute of Transport Technology,Nanjing 211188,China)

机构地区：[1]南京交通职业技术学院继续教育学院,江苏南京211188 [2]南京交通职业技术学院江苏省交通节能减排工程技术研究中心,江苏南京211188 [3]南京交通职业技术学院院长办公室,江苏南京211188

出　　处：《江苏航运职业技术学院学报》2022年第3期55-61,共7页Journal of Jiangsu Shipping College

基　　金：江苏省交通运输职业教育行业指导委员会江苏省交通运输职业教育研究课题(2020001)。

摘　　要：为科学预测江苏交通技能人才需求,运用灰色理论和多元回归分析方法,构建交通技能人才预测模型。预测结果表明,随着经济增长、交通运输投入持续增大,江苏省交通运输基础设施不断完善,客运和货运能力不断增强,交通运输管理、建设、研发等的人才需求总量也在逐年增加。“十四五”期间,江苏交通运输需求人数增长8万余人,至2025年,交通人才需求总量约为64万人。经检验分析,预测模型具有较高的精度,可为构建交通技能人才培养体系提供理论参考。In order to scientifically predict the demand for skilled talents in Jiangsu transport industry,a prediction model of skilled talents in Jiangsu transport industry is constructed by using gray theory and multiple regression analysis method.The prediction results show that with the economic growth and continuous increase of transport investment,the transport infrastructure in Jiangsu Province has been improved and the passenger and freight transport capacity has been enhanced,and the total demand for talents in transport management,construction and research and development has been increasing year by year.During the“14th Five-year Plan”period,the demand for talents in Jiangsu will increase by more than 80,000,and by 2025,the total demand for transport talents will be about 640,000.After testing and analyzing,the prediction model is of high-level accuracy and can provide theoretical reference for constructing the talents cultivation system for Jiangsu transport industry.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 多元回归分析方法 交通运输行业 人才需求预测 

分 类 号：F512[经济管理—产业经济]