基于系统动力学的项目组合脆性风险分析  

Brittleness Risk Analysis of Project Portfolio Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：管杜娟 韩韵秋 GUAN Du-juan;HAN Yun-qiu(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学经济与管理学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2022年第10期123-135,共13页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71802003,72002161);教育部人文社科项目(18YJC630040);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(XJS200602);安徽省社科规划一般项目(AHSKY2020D14);安徽高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(SK2021A0346)。

摘　　要：基于系统动力学方法研究项目组合脆性风险的传导机理和发展趋势.首先,从资源、技术、进度、收益及管理复杂性等五个方面分析项目组合脆性风险的影响因素及机理,继而基于系统动力学和结构熵权法建立风险传导模型.最后以软件项目为例进行仿真分析.一方面模拟项目间的交互耦合程度,即结构类因素取值不同的情况下,项目组合脆性风险的发展趋势;另一方面通过敏感性分析,研究四个关键能力类因素,即资源调度能力、技术整合能力、项目统筹调度能力和市场调查能力的取值对风险的影响.最后得出,结构类因素在项目组合实施的中后期对脆性风险影响显著,资源调度能力和技术整合能力则存在阈值效应,其较高的取值能够扭转风险的发展趋势.The transmission mechanism and development trend of project portfolio brittleness risk were studied based on system dynamics method.The influencing factors and mechanism of project portfolio brittleness risk were first analyzed from five aspects:resources,technology,progress,income and management complexity,and then the risk transmission model was established based on system dynamics and structural entropy weight method.Finally,a software project was taken as an example for simulation analysis.On the one hand,the degree of mutual coupling between projects was simulated,that is,the development trend of project portfolio brittleness risk under the condition of different values of structural factors.On the other hand,the impact of the values of four critical capability factors,namely resource scheduling capability,technology integration capability,project overall scheduling capability and market research capability,on brittle risk was studied using sensitivity analysis.Finally,it was concluded that structural factors have a significant impact on brittleness risk in the middle and late stage of project portfolio implementation,and there was a threshold effect on the impact of resource scheduling ability and technology integration ability on brittleness risk,that is,a higher value could reverse the development trend of risk.

关 键 词：项目组合 脆性风险 系统动力学 阈值效应 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]