变革性研究预见:理论模型和多维引文特征  

Transformative Research Foresight:Theoretical Model and Multi-dimensional Citation Characteristics

作　　者：梁国强 步一[2] 胡志刚[3] 侯海燕[3] Liang Guoqiang;Bu Yi;Hu Zhigang;Hou Haiyan(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124;Department of Information Management,Peking University,Beijing 100871;WISE_Lab,Institute of Science of Science and Management of S&T,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124 [2]北京大学信息管理系,北京100871 [3]大连理工大学科学学与科技管理研究所暨WISE实验室,大连116024

出　　处：《情报学报》2022年第11期1111-1123,共13页Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“协同进化视角下变革性研究的形成机制与识别方法研究”(72204014),“基于因果推断的高学术影响力跨学科团队早期识别研究”(72104007);辽宁省社科联2022年度辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题“基础研究领域颠覆性创新:精准识别、前瞻预测与智能评价”(2022lslybkt-034)。

摘　　要：变革性研究(transformative research,TR)是彻底改变人们对现有科学的认知、引领新前沿的研究,是基础研究领域的重大突破。本研究从文献引证与被引证视角构建了TR早期阶段的理论模型和多维引文特征体系,并以诺贝尔奖关键成果为例对TR的早期特征进行探究。研究结果发现,TR本质上是库恩科学革命的结构中提到的潜在新范式,处于科学革命的起始阶段。从广度维度看,近些年TR知识基础的学科会聚特征明显,且产生早期学科扩散特征显著;从强度维度看,TR对现有知识的吸收特征明显,产生早期对学科领域的冲击较强;从速度维度看,TR知识基础的老化特征明显,但近些年有减缓趋势,其产生后的增长特征较为显著。本研究为TR产生早期的量化研究提供了理论支撑和多维引文特征框架,为TR预见提供了借鉴。Transformative research(TR),a major breakthrough in fundamental research,radically transforms our current scientific understanding and propels scientific research toward a new frontier.This study introduces a theoretical model and multi-dimensional citation characteristics of TR based on the cited-citing relationship between scientific studies.Additionally,this study explores the early characteristics of TR by using Nobel Prize-winning papers as a proxy.The results show that TR’s true nature is a potential new paradigm,as presented in Kuhn’s theory of scientific revolution;specifically,TR occurs in the beginning of a period of scientific revolution.As for the broadness of TR,the convergence of its disciplinary and early diffusion characteristics are apparent.Regarding the intensity dimension,the knowledge absorption and early disruption characteristics of TR are apparent.When considering the speed dimension,the obsolescent characteristics—as well as the early growth characteristics after its publication—are apparent.This research provides a theoretical and multidimensional citation framework for the quantitative analysis of TR at its early stage,which is a step toward TR forecasting.

关 键 词：变革性研究 科学革命 范式 诺贝尔自然科学奖 引文分析 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]