高油价能否促进消费者购买新能源汽车  

Can high oil prices encourage consumers to purchase new energy vehicles?

作　　者：景鹏[1] 蔡云昊 孙慧倩 王卫超 王百会 明柏旭 JING Peng;CAI Yun-hao;SUN Hui-qian;WANG Wei-chao;WANG Bai-hui;MING Bai-xu(School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏大学,汽车与交通工程学院,镇江212013

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2022年第4期1-18,共18页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71871107)。

摘　　要：自2022年3月份以来,消费者购车的意向受到前所未有的新高油价、纯电动汽车价格上涨和新能源汽车补贴退坡等多重因素的共同影响。推广新能源汽车已经作为“双碳”目标下汽车行业减排的最重要措施之一,所以准确地理解和解释消费者购买新能源汽车的意向具有重要意义。本研究基于面板混合Logit模型分析了3450个观测值,结果表明:在其他因素固定不变的前提下,油价大幅上涨将显著提升消费者购买纯电动汽车的意向,而混合动力汽车的购买意向呈先升后降的“马鞍形”趋势;油价和纯电动汽车销售价格对消费者购车意向存在相互制约的作用机理,当纯电动汽车价格上涨一定水平,油价同步持续上涨时,燃油车主能够接受的油价上涨幅度低于新能源车主,即随着油价的上涨,燃油车主将更可能购买纯电动汽车,表明燃油车主对油价更加敏感;此外,本研究发现购置税比购车补贴对消费者购买新能源汽车意向的影响更大。上述研究结果为调整燃油税、购置税相关政策的制定以及车企调整销售价格和销售策略提供了理论参考。Several factors,such as unprecedented new high oil prices,rising prices of pure electric vehicles,and declining subsidies for new energy vehicles,have affected consumers’intention to purchase cars since March 2022.As the promotion of new energy vehicles has become one of the most critical measures in the automotive industry for reducing emissions to achieve the“dual carbon”goal,it is crucial to clarify consumers’intentions to purchase new energy vehicles.In this study,3450 observations were analyzed using a panel hybrid logit model.The results show that a sharp increase in oil prices significantly increase consumers’intention to buy pure electric vehicles when other factors remain constant.In contrast,the intention to purchase hybrid electric vehicles increase significantly,showing the“saddle”trend of initially increasing and then decreasing.Oil prices and the prices of pure electric vehicles have a mutually restrictive mechanism for consumers to purchase cars.When the price of pure electric vehicles increases to a specific level and oil prices continue to increase simultaneously,the oil price increase that fuel vehicle owners can accept is lower than that of new energy vehicle owners.With an increase in oil prices,fuel vehicle owners are more likely to buy pure electric vehicles,indicating that fuel vehicle owners are more sensitive to oil prices.In addition,purchase tax has a more significant impact on consumers’intention to buy new energy vehicles than car purchase subsidy.This study provides a theoretical reference for formulating relevant policies to adjust fuel and purchase taxes and for car companies to adjust sales prices and strategies.

关 键 词：交通工程 购车意向 面板混合Logit模型 敏感性分析 油价 车价 

分 类 号：F713.55[经济管理—市场营销] U491.1[经济管理—产业经济]