合肥都市圈生态经济与旅游经济耦合协调与预测研究  

A Study on the Coupling Coordination and Prediction of Ecological Economy and Tourism Economy in Hefei Metropolitan Area

作　　者：陆菊[1] 傅为[1] 吴洁芳 LU Ju;FU Wei;WU Jie-fang(School of International Tourism,Anhui International Studies University,Hefei Anhui 230000;School of Business Administration,Anhui Vocational College of City Management,Hefei Anhui 230000)

机构地区：[1]安徽外国语学院国际旅游学院,安徽合肥230000 [2]安徽城市管理职业学院商贸管理学院,安徽合肥230000

出　　处：《巢湖学院学报》2022年第5期30-38,共9页Journal of Chaohu University

基　　金：安徽省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究项目(项目编号:SK2020A0640)。

摘　　要：以合肥都市圈为研究区域,分别构建生态经济与旅游经济评价指标体系,运用全局熵值法、综合指数评价模型、耦合协调度模型测度分析2016-2020年两系统发展指数以及耦合协调度,再运用GM(1,1)模型预测耦合协调度值的发展趋势。研究表明:2016-2019年,合肥都市圈两系统均值发展指数增长态势趋同,而2020年两系统发展均值指数出现相反,但二者的地区差异都呈缩小态势;时空维度上,合肥都市圈8个城市(县)总体上呈现波动性上升趋势,耦合等级由濒临失调向中级协调演变,空间具体演化规律是“凸”字型-“中间高-南北低”-“凹”字型;合肥都市圈各成员耦合协调度值进行了动态模拟,除了合肥,其余城市(县)模拟效果较好,同时反映出未来耦合协调度值向高水平发展。文章的研究结果可为合肥都市圈促进旅游持续发展和生态文明建设提供参考价值。Taking Hefei metropolitan area as the research area,the evaluation index systems of ecological economy and tourism economy are constructed respectively.The development index and coupling coordination degree of the two systems from 2016 to 2020 are measured and analyzed by global entropy method,comprehensive index evaluation model and coupling coordination degree model,and then the development trend of coupling coordination degree is predicted by GM(1,1)model.The results show that from 2016 to 2019,the growth trends of the average development indices of the two systems in Hefei metropolitan area are similar,while those of the average development indices of the two systems are opposite in 2020,but the regional differences of the two systems are both shrinking.In spatial and temporal dimensions,the eight cities(counties)in Hefei metropolitan area generally show an upward trend with fluctuations,and the coupling level evolves from being on the verge of imbalance to intermediate coordination.The specific spatial evolution law is"convex"-"high in the middle,low in the north and south"-"concave";The coupling coordination degree of each member of Hefei metropolitan area is dynamically simulated.The simulation results of all cities(counties)are good except Hefei,which reflects that the coupling coordination degree will develop to a high level in the future.The research results of this paper can provide reference for Hefei metropolitan area to promote sustainable tourism development and ecological civilization construction.

关 键 词：生态经济 旅游经济 耦合协调度 GM(1 1)模型 合肥都市圈 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]